构建中国特色的预期管理  

Building Expectation Management with Chinese Characteristics

作　　者：张晓晶 曾一巳 邵兴宇 ZHANG Xiaojing;ZENG Yisi;SHAO Xingyu

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所,北京东城100710 [2]中国社会科学院大学经济学院,北京房山102488

出　　处：《中共中央党校（国家行政学院）学报》2021年第3期64-73,共10页Journal of The Party School of The Central Committee of The C.P.C（Chinese Academy of Governance）

摘　　要：就发达经济体而言,20世纪90年代以来的通货膨胀目标制,以及2008年以来的前瞻性指引,是预期管理实践两个重要的里程碑。中国的预期管理处在学习探索阶段,但在实践中也逐步形成了具有中国特色的预期管理。一是宏观调控目标的多维决定了预期管理的多维;二是形成涵盖短期、中期、长期的具有前瞻性指引作用的预期管理谱系;三是通过"底线思维、区间调控、跨周期安排"实现预期管理模式创新;四是预期管理的重点是制度、规则及政府信誉。未来加强和完善预期管理需在以下方面发力。一是政府有效沟通,稳定高阶预期;二是提高预测能力,走在市场曲线的前面;三是建立健全预期管理指标体系;四是主动作为,积极引导国际市场预期。Inflation targeting since the 1990 s and forward guidance since 2008 are two milestones in expectation management practices of advanced economies.In China,expectation management is still at the stage of study and exploration,which is preliminary in general,but has gradually formed with Chinese characteristics in practice:first,to form the multi-dimensional expectation management determined by the multi-dimensional macro-control objectives;second,to form an expectation management spectrum covering short-term,mid-term,and long-term with the role of forward guidance;third,to achieve expectation management innovation through"bottom-line thinking,interval regulation,and inter-cycle arrangements";and fourth,to focus on institutional rules and government credibility,which are far more important than communication skills.To strengthen and improve expectation management,efforts should be made in the following aspects:first,communicating effectively to stabilize high-order expectations;second,improving forecasting abilities to get ahead of the market curve;third,establishing and improving the index system of expectation management;and fourth,taking actions proactively to guide global market expectations.

关 键 词：通货膨胀目标制 前瞻性指引 中国特色预期管理 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学] F832