基于AHP-集对分析的矿井水资源利用风险评估  

Risk assessment of mine water resource utilization based on analytic hierarchy process and set pair analysis

作　　者：王亨力 倪深海[1] WANG Hengli;NI Shenhai(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2021年第3期126-135,共10页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0403505,2017YFC1502401)。

摘　　要：识别了矿井水资源利用风险因素,基于供需双侧协调目标,筛选出水量、水质、经济(成本)3个一级指标及12个风险评估二级指标建立矿井水资源利用风险评估指标体系,构建基于集对分析理论的矿井水利用风险评估模型。选取冀中煤炭基地邢邯地区的7个矿区作为典型案例,运用层次分析法评价和集对分析综合评价进行矿井水资源利用风险评估。评估结果表明:邢台、葛泉为低风险,章村、显德汪、邢东、东庞及西庞为中风险;风险等级主要受水质、水量因素的影响,受经济因素影响最小。评估结果与矿区矿井水资源利用实际情况基本符合,这表明基于集对分析理论用于矿井水资源利用的风险评估是可行的,模型可用于其他矿区矿井水资源利用风险评估。This study identifies risk factors associated with the utilization of mine water resources,and based on the objective of a bilateral coordination between supply and demand,selects three primary indicators,namely water volume,water quality,and economy(cost),and 12 secondary indicators of risk assessment to establish a risk assessment index system for mine water use.A mine water utilization risk assessment model is constructed on the basis of the set pair analysis(SPA)theory.Seven mining areas in the Xinghan area of the Jizhong coal base are selected as typical cases,and the analytic hierarchy process and SPA are applied to conduct mine water utilization risk assessment.The evaluation results of the two methods are consistent:Xingtai and Gequan have a low risk,whereas Zhangcun,Xiandewang,Xingdong,Dongpang,and Xipang have a medium risk.The risk level is mainly affected by water quality and volume,and is least affected by economy.The evaluation results are in line with the actual conditions of mine water resource utilization,thus confirming the feasibility of the SPA theory for mine water utilization risk assessment.The model can also be applied to risk assessment in other mining areas.

关 键 词：矿井水利用 层次分析法 集对分析 风险评估 邢邯地区 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]