资本流动与汇率失衡——基于跨国经验的实证分析  

Capital Flow and Exchange Rate Imbalance——An Empirical Analysis Based on Cross-Country Experience

作　　者：陈中飞[1] 范春嫦 李珂欣 李佳阳 CHEN Zhong-fei;FAN Chun-chang;LI Ke-xin;LI Jia-yang

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院 [2]中山大学岭南学院,广州510632

出　　处：《金融论坛》2021年第6期49-59,共11页Finance Forum

摘　　要：基于EQCHANGE汇率失衡数据库,本文采用双向固定效应面板模型分析1995-2015年间全球77个国家净资本流动对汇率失衡程度的影响。研究发现:净资本流入影响汇率失衡程度,即在汇率低估时,净资本流入有利于汇率回归其均衡水平,在汇率高估时,净资本流入反而会增加汇率失衡;子项目资本净流动对汇率水平的影响不尽相同;汇率制度弹性越大,越有利于资本流动调节汇率水平;资本流入管制的调节效果比流出管制更佳。Based on the exchange rate imbalance data of EQCHANGE, this paper uses a two-way fixed-effect panel model to analyze the impact of net capital flow in 77 countries in the world on the degree of exchange rate imbalance during 1995-2015. It’s found that, the net capital inflow impacts the degree of exchange rate imbalance, which means that the net capital inflow helps the exchange rate to return to its equilibrium level when the exchange rate is undervalued, and to increase exchange rate imbalance when the exchange rate is overvalued;the impacts of the net capital flow of sub-items on exchange rate vary;the more flexible the exchange rate system, the more conducive it is for capital flow to adjust the exchange rate level;the adjustment effect of capital inflow control is better than that of outflow control.

关 键 词：汇率失衡 资本流动 资本管制 汇率制度 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]