Restored relationship between ENSO andIndian summermonsoon rainfall around 1999/2000  

作　　者：Xianke Yang Ping Huang 

机构地区：[1]Center for Monsoon System Research,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China [3]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China

出　　处：《The Innovation》2021年第2期157-165,共9页创新（英文）

基　　金：This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(grant 2019YFA0606703);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grants 41722504 and 41975116);and the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.Data and codes will be made available upon request to X.Y.

摘　　要：El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)was identified as the dominant predictor for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall(ISMR)in the early 1900s.An apparent weakening of the ENSO–ISMR relationship has been observed since the 1970s.Here,we found a clear restoration of the ENSO–ISMR relationship since 1999/2000.This restoring relationship is closely linked to the interdecadal transition of ENSO evolution and the associated sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)over the tropical Atlantic.During 1979–1997,summer ENSO events mainly continued from the previous winter,which can drive apparent Atlantic Niña SSTAs to offset ENSO's impact on ISMR and weaken the ENSO–ISMR relationship.In contrast,when ENSO events newly emerge from late spring,as they have done more recently during 2000–2018,the associated tropical Atlantic SSTAs are weak and shift to the tropical North Atlantic,which can offset the contribution of Atlantic Niña and reinforce the ENSO–ISMR relationship.We identified that the diversity of ENSO's evolution,continuing from the previous winter or emerging from late spring,is the dominant factor perturbing the ENSO–ISMR relationship in recent epochs,with tropical Atlantic SSTAs as the crucial bridge.This finding should be considered in our efforts to improve ISMR prediction.

关 键 词：ENSO–ISMR relationship interdecadal transition tropical Atlantic SSTAs emerging ENSOs continuing ENSOs 

分 类 号：P73[天文地球—海洋科学]