基于德尔菲法和层次分析法的“卡脖子”关键技术甄选研究——以生物医药领域为例  

A Research Based on Careful and Thorough Selection of “Neck-jamming” Technologies Using Delphi Method and AHP:a Case Study in Biomedical Field

作　　者：郑国雄[1] 李伟[1] 刘溉[1] 练冠华 ZHENG Guoxiong;LI Wei;LIU Gai;LIAN Guanhua(Guangzhou Productivity Promotion Center(Guangzhou Innovation Strategy Research Institute),Guangzhou 510091,China)

机构地区：[1]广州生产力促进中心(广州创新战略研究院),广州510091

出　　处：《世界科技研究与发展》2021年第3期331-343,共13页World Sci-Tech R&D

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“珠三角城市群综合科技服务平台研发与应用示范”(2018YFB1404200);广州市科技计划“聚焦创新举措与重点产业的科技智库建设研究”(201901040008)。

摘　　要：本文通过收集生物医药领域的国家、各地科学发展计划、重点研发计划项目及企业技术需求等信息,建立起生物医药领域的关键核心技术数据库,构建了关键核心技术的"重要-垄断-先进-难度-价值"的甄选指标体系,结合德尔菲法以及层次分析模型,甄选出生物医药领域的"卡脖子"程度最高的技术,再通过专利分析的方法对甄选出的"卡脖子"程度高技术进行验证。结果发现,通过本文模型甄选出来卡脖子程度最高的3项关键核心技术,从专利数上看,都属于全球研究热点,但其国内专利数量都比国外专利数量少,并且各项技术国内专利的数量在全球都不是第一。说明甄选出来的3项技术,中国处于相对落后的位置,也说明甄选出的技术处于价值链核心位置和产业链的重要环节。最后本文根据甄选结果以及分析,提出解决生物医药领域"卡脖子"技术的相关政策建议。This research has built a database of key and core technologies in bio-medicine field through collection of information on national scientific development plans,key research and development project and corporate technological demand at first,and then an index system for thorough selection of key and core technologies with an escalation label from being important,monopoly,advanced,difficult to being valuable is build.With the system,based on the Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process model,the exclusively"Neck-jamming"technologies in the bio-medicine field are carefully and thoroughly selected.The selected"Neck-jamming"technologies are verified by patent analysis method.The results demonstrate that the three selected"Neck-jamming"technologies are all global research hotspots,but foreign patents outnumber domestic patents.The number of domestic patents is lower the that of top countries.It is indicated that China relatively lags behind on the selected three technologies and these technologies are located in important place of the value chain and industrial chain.Finally,according to the analysis of the selection results,the relevant policy suggestions aiming to fill in the gaps in the"Neck-jamming"technologies in the bio-medicine field are put forward.

关 键 词：“卡脖子”技术 德尔菲法 层次分析模型 生物医药 

分 类 号：R318[医药卫生—生物医学工程]