中国茶叶出口贸易增长的三元边际特征及其分解--基于“一带一路”沿线国家的数据分析  

Decomposition of Ternary Marginal Characters of Chinese Tea Export Trade Growth:An Analysis of"One Belt and One Road"Countries

作　　者：鲁良华 张藕香[1] LU Lianghua;ZHANG Ouxiang

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学经济管理学院,安徽合肥230036 [2]安徽农业大学茶与食品学院,安徽合肥230036

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第2期49-56,195,共9页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金项目(项目编号:20YJA790088)。

摘　　要：基于2000-2018年UN Comtrade数据库茶叶贸易数据,利用扩展的贸易引力模型,对“一带一路”沿线国家的中国茶叶出口贸易增长及其结构进行了分解。结果表明,中国茶叶出口贸易的增长主要是扩展边际拉动的结果;集约边际虽然增幅较快,但占比很小,且主要依赖价格边际的驱动;数量边际不仅占比小,而且没有明显的变化特征。进一步地实证结果发现,在三元边际特征中,经济规模、贸易政策、非关税壁垒和贸易自由度对扩展边际具有显著正向影响;收入水平、贸易政策仅对价格边际具有显著正向影响,关税壁垒不仅对价格边际有正向影响,而且对数量边际也有显著正向影响;而茶园土地生产率是唯一一个对数量边际有显著正向影响的变量。比较“一带一路”倡议提出前后的结果发现,收入水平、贸易自由度、关税壁垒、技术性贸易壁垒、茶园土地生产率在两个阶段均有不同程度的变化。因此,在新的贸易挑战不断叠加的背景下,应加大与“一带一路”沿线国家的通力合作,建立互助互惠机制,从而规避因新型非关税壁垒等因素对中国茶叶出口带来的冲击。Based on the tea trade data of the UN Comtrade database from 2000 to 2018,this paper analyzes the growth and structure of China's tea export trade by using the extended trade gravity model in the countries of"One Belt and One Road".The results show that the growth of China's tea export trade is mainly due to the expansion of the marginal pull;although the intensive margin grows faster,the proportion is small,and it is mainly driven by the price margin;the quantity margin not only accounts for a small proportion,but there is no obvious change feature.Further empirical results show that among the ternary marginal characteristics,economic scale,free trade agreements,non-tariff barriers and trade freedom have a significant positive effect on the expansion margin;income levels and free trade agreements only have a significant positive effect on the price margin and tariff barriers not only have a positive impact on the price margin,but also have a significant positive impact on the quantity margin;tea garden land productivity is the only variable that has a significant positive impact on the quantity margin.Comparing the results before and after the proposal of the"One Belt and One Road"initiative,it was found that income levels,trade freedom,tariff barriers,technical trade barriers,and tea garden land productivity have varying degrees of change in both stages.Therefore,under the background that new trade challenges are constantly superimposed,we will increase cooperation with countries along the"One Belt and One Road"and establish mutual assistance mechanisms to avoid the impact of new non-tariff barriers on China's tea exports.

关 键 词：茶叶出口贸易 三元边际特征 “一带一路” 结构变化 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]