中国能源利用效率对能源稀缺影响的地域差异及门槛特征  

Regional differences and threshold characters of the impact of energy use efficiency on energy scarcity in China

作　　者：李敏[1] 龙开胜[1] LI Min;LONG Kaisheng(College of Public Adninistration,Nanjing Agriculural University,Nanjng Jiangsu 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2021年第5期37-46,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：江苏省国土资源研究中心开放合作项目“自然资源所有权实现形式及机制研究”(批准号:2019TDZY08);国家自然科学基金面上项目“经济发达地区生态补偿的土地利用变化效应及其优化调控研究——以苏州市为例”(批准号:71373129)。

摘　　要：一直以来,提高能源利用技术效率被认为是缓解能源稀缺的重要手段,但能源回弹效应证明了单纯依靠技术改变能源稀缺程度的脆弱性与不可持续性。在能源要素市场不断发展的背景下,探究技术和成本约束下能源资源配置路径及差异对促进能源可持续利用具有重要意义。文章采用2003—2017年中国省际面板数据,运用工具变量——两阶段最小二乘法分别检验了能源利用技术效率、成本效率对能源稀缺的影响及地区差异性,在此基础上系统考察了该影响的门槛特征。研究结果表明:①技术和要素价格作为能源利用技术效率、成本效率的关键作用力,通过影响能源与非能源要素的互补和替代需求关系,改变了剩余生产要素的利用程度,对能源稀缺产生深刻影响。同时,由于不同地区、不同阶段技术能力、市场发育程度的不同,能源利用效率对能源稀缺的影响也呈现出地区和时间差异性。②研究时期内,全国层面能源稀缺的缓解主要源于能源成本效率的改善;区域层面,中部地区能源稀缺的缓解主要源于能源利用技术效率的提升,东西部地区能源稀缺的缓解则源于能源成本效率的改善。③在经济发展水平、对外开放水平、科技投入水平以及产业发展结构的约束下,中国能源利用技术效率、成本效率对能源稀缺表现为非线性影响,在通过特定的拐点后发生结构性突变,具有显著的门槛特征。因此,能源利用中要充分发挥能源价格的作用,重视能源经济发展的区域差异性和阶段性特征,以促进能源资源的可持续利用。The improvement of the technical efficiency of energy use has been widely seen as an important way to alleviate energy scarcity. However, the energy rebound effect demonstrates the vulnerability and unsustainability of alleviating energy scarcity relying on technology. Under the background of the consistent development of energy factor market, it is of great importance to explore the paths and differences of energy source allocation constrained by technology and cost to promote the sustainable use of energy. This study analyzed the regional differences and threshold characteristics in the impact of the technical and cost efficiency of energy use on energy scarcity using the instrumental variable-two-stage least square method, based on the panel data of Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2017. The results showed that:① Technology and price were the critical forces of the technical and cost efficiency of energy use. They changed the degree of use of surplus production factors by affecting the complementary and replacement demand relationship between energy and non-energy factors. Meanwhile, the impact of energy use efficiency on energy scarcity showed regional and time features due to the different technology capabilities and different levels of market development in different regions and different time.② The alleviation of energy scarcity at the national level relied on the improvement of energy cost efficiency. At the regional level, the alleviation of energy scarcity in central China came from the improvement of the technical efficiency of energy use. However, the alleviation of energy scarcity in the eastern and western regions was due to the improvement of energy cost efficiency.③ Constrained by the economic development, openness, science and technology input and the industrial development structure, the impact of the technical and cost efficiency of energy use on energy scarcity demonstrated a nonlinear feature. And structural mutation occurred after passing a specific ‘inflection point’, which showed a

关 键 词：能源利用技术效率 能源成本效率 能源稀缺 地区差异 门槛回归 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]