外部冲击、自主创新与外向型城市高质量发展——基于2008年国际金融危机的准自然实验  

External Impact,Independent Innovation and High-Quality Development of Export-Oriented Cities:Based on Quasi-Natural Experimental Evidence of the 2008 International Financial Crisis

作　　者：杨冕 徐飞[2] YANG Mian;XU Fei(Center of Economic Development Research,Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei,430072,China;School of Economics and Management,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu,Anhui,241000,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心,湖北武汉430072 [2]安徽师范大学经济管理学院,安徽芜湖241002

出　　处：《经济管理》2021年第5期24-43,共20页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“能源价格扭曲纠正视角下中国工业全要素生产率提升潜力与实现路径研究”(71774122);国家自然科学基金项目“高能效资本累积视角下能源价格合理调控区间:微观机制与模拟分析”(72073105);国家自然科学基金项目“基于前置形态多样性的股价崩盘分类、归因及预警研究”(71903002)。

摘　　要：中美经贸摩擦、新冠疫情全球大流行等对我国经济增长构成严重冲击,在此背景下,研究自主创新对我国经济高质量发展的影响具有重要意义。本文选择2008年国际金融危机为准自然实验,并基于2004—2016年282个地级市数据,探讨自主创新对外部冲击下我国外向型城市经济高质量发展影响及其内在作用机制。研究结果表明:国际社会爆发的外部冲击会对我国外向型城市经济高质量发展产生不利冲击,表现在经济增长、职工收入、财政收入、工业污染减排和产业高级化等方面,而自主创新则在一定程度上对该负面冲击产生了有效缓解作用;异质性检验显示,城市科技服务能力和政府科技支持强度会显著增强自主创新对后危机时代我国外向型城市高质量发展的促进作用,意味着创新发展过程中也要健全创新服务体系和发挥政府支持作用;机制检验显示,自主创新会通过增加外向型城市的生产效率和居民消费水平两个渠道来促进城市高质量发展。上述研究结论表明,在国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下,更要充分认识到自主创新对中国经济高质量发展的作用,持续推动创新驱动发展战略。International trade can not only bring advanced technology, equipment and management experience to developing countries, but also promote them to form advantageous industries in a competitive environment, promote industrial upgrading, and form late-mover advantages so as to catch up with developed countries.However, there are also potential threats to the internationalization strategy: on the one hand, due to information asymmetry and geopolitical conflicts among regions, the crisis that breaks out in some countries or regions may evolve into a global crisis through industrial chain transmission, thus causing a major adjustment of the global economic order and paying high costs for it.With the rise of the tide of anti-globalization and the sudden attack of the COVID-19 pandemic, the security of the global industrial chain, supply chain and value chain has been severely impacted.The contraction of external circulation will become the new normal for China’s economic development.We need to explore the impact of external shocks on high-quality urban development in China, and explore possible coping mechanisms to serve the sustainable and healthy development of China’s economy.As the world’s largest trading nation in goods, China suffers from the economic crisis, trade protection and internal contradictions from developed countries, which seriously restricts the high-quality development of China’s economy.The most typical manifestation is the external circulation contraction.In the post-crisis era, China has successfully embarked on a path of independent innovation and development in response to the external shrinking crisis.This has provided us with experience to effectively deal with the current China-Us trade disputes.To this end, based on data from 282 cities from 2004 to 2018,this paper empirically examines the role and mechanism of independent innovation in the quality development of China’s export-oriented urban economy in the post-crisis era.Test results show that:(1) the international financial cris

关 键 词：国内国际双循环 外部冲击 国际金融危机 自主创新 高质量发展 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]