韩国智库对美国大选的研判及影响分析--以韩国外交安保研究所和世宗研究所为例  

Analysis of ROK’s Think Tanks’ Prejudge on 2020 US Presidential Election and Its Influence--Taking IFANS and the Sejong Institute as Examples

作　　者：姚寰宇 崔明旭 Yao Huanyu;Cui Mingxu(School of Northeast Asia Studies,Shandong University;Deputy Director of Center for Korean Peninsula Studies,Shandong University.)

机构地区：[1]山东大学东北亚学院 [2]山东大学朝鲜半岛研究中心

出　　处：《当代韩国》2021年第1期50-66,共17页Contemporary Korea

基　　金：教育部高校国别和区域研究2020年度项目“后疫情时代东亚一体化研究”;中国社会科学院—上海市人民政府上海研究院项目“新形势下的东北亚合作路径研究”的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：智库在国家政策制定和对外关系构建中发挥着重要作用。2020年美国大选期间,韩国智库进行了密切跟踪与分析。通过对韩国外交安保研究所和世宗研究所两家韩国代表性智库针对美国大选的研究报告进行分析可以看出,韩国智库对美国大选的判断相对客观理性。韩国智库针对大选可能的结果,主要从韩美关系、朝美关系、中美韩关系等方面,向韩国政府提出了建议。通过分析韩国智库对美国大选的研判,可以窥探韩国未来的政策调整方向及未来韩美关系的发展走向。Think tanks play an important role in the formulation of national policies and the construction of foreign relations.During U.S.presidential election in 2020,think tanks in ROK followed the process and analyzed it closely.Through the analysis of the research reports of two representative well-known think tanks in ROK,the Korea Institute of Foreign Affairs and Security and the Sejong Institute,it can be seen that the think tanks’prejudge on the US presidential election is relatively objective and rational.The think tanks made suggestions to the government on the possible outcome of the election,mainly from the aspects of the relations between ROK and US,DPRK and US,and the Sino-U.S.relations.By analyzing the think tanks’reports on 2020 US presidential election,we can see the future policy adjustment direction of ROK and the future development direction of the relations between ROK and US.

关 键 词：韩国智库 公共外交 韩美关系 美国大选 

分 类 号：C932[经济管理—管理学] D831.26[政治法律—政治学]