2020年牛羊肉市场形势分析及2021年展望  

Analysis of Beef and Mutton Market Situation in 2020 and Its Outlook for 2021

作　　者：朱聪[1] 曲春红[1] 司智陟 Zhu Cong;Qu Chunhong;Si Zhizhi(Agricultural Information Institute,CAAS,Beijing 100081;Institute of Food Science and Technology,CAAS,Beijing 100193)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院农产品加工研究所,北京100193

出　　处：《农业展望》2021年第3期11-16,共6页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业农村部市场农产品市场预警项目;中国农业科学院农业科技创新工程(CAAS-ASTIP-2016-AII)。

摘　　要：2020年,新冠疫情的暴发和流行对国内外牛肉生产和贸易产生了一定影响。从国内看,2020年上半年新冠疫情对牛羊肉生产的影响较大,由于运输受阻,养殖所需的饲草料出现短缺,牛羊出栏明显减少,生产企业人手短缺,开工不足。1季度以后,随着疫情防控逐渐取得成效,牛羊出栏逐渐增加,生产、消费逐步恢复正常。全年牛羊肉产量均小幅增长,牛肉进口大幅增加,羊肉进口略有下降,全年消费仍然较旺,牛羊肉年度平均价格仍较上年继续上涨。从国际看,全球牛肉产量小幅下降,羊肉产量略有增长,新冠疫情对餐饮和物流行业的冲击导致牛羊肉贸易量有所下降。预计2021年,中国牛羊肉生产将保持稳步增长,居民消费结构升级仍将带动牛羊肉消费增加,但在国内猪肉产能回升的影响下,牛羊肉替代消费需求有所减弱,牛肉进口增速有所放缓,羊肉进口增速将趋于平稳,全年价格仍将处于高位运行。In 2020,the outbreak and prevalence of the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced both domestic and foreign beef production and trade.From the domestic perspective,the COVID-19 pandemic had a greater impact on beef and mutton production in the first half of 2020,due to the obstruction of transportation,the shortage of forage materials commonly happened among farms,the slaughter of cattle and sheep decreased significantly,and the shortage of labor led to an insufficient operation.After the 1 st quarter,with the success of prevention and control of epidemic in China,the slaughter of cattle and sheep increased gradually,and production and consumption gradually returned to normal.For the full year,the production of beef and mutton both increased,the import of beef rose significantly while mutton got a small fall down,the consumption of beef and mutton were still standing at a high level,the annual average prices of beef and mutton continued to rise compared with the previous year.From the international perspective,the world production of beef experienced a slightly decline,while the production of mutton increased,and the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the catering and logistics industries led to a decline in global trade of beef and mutton.In 2021,the production of beef and mutton in China will grow steadily,and the consumption will keep rising driven by the upgrade of food consumption,but the substitute demand for beef and mutton will be weakened,affected by the rebound of pork production,and the growth of beef import will slow down,mutton import will tend to be stable,and the price of beef and mutton will still be running high.

关 键 词：牛肉 羊肉 生产 价格 贸易 消费 展望 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济]