当前中国外汇储备规模的适度状况分析  

Moderate Situation Analysis of Current Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserve Scale

作　　者：龙雨欣 LONG Yu-xin(Business School,East China University of Political Science and Law,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]华东政法大学商学院,上海201620

出　　处：《价值工程》2021年第16期244-248,共5页Value Engineering

摘　　要：文章采用学界常用的比例分析法和阿格沃尔模型,在凯恩斯的流动性偏好理论的分析框架下讨论我国2000年至2020年外汇储备规模的合理性,结果表明我国的外汇储备规模自2016年一直处于适度状态。同时,基于预防性动机的外汇储备需求由于我国外汇市场交易量逐年递增不断提高,为避免高储备带来过高的机会成本,营造繁荣的市场环境、加速人民币国际化进程就显得尤为重要。This paper adopts the commonly used proportional analysis method and Agarwal model in the academic circle to discuss the rationality of China's foreign exchange reserve scale from 2000 to 2020 under the analytical framework of Keynesian liquidity preference theory.The results show that the scale of China's foreign exchange reserve has been in a moderate state since 2016.At the same time,the demand for foreign exchange reserves based on the precautionary motive is increasing year by year due to the increasing trading volume in China's foreign exchange market.In order to avoid the excessive opportunity cost brought by high reserves,it is particularly important to create a prosperous market environment and accelerate the process of RMB internationalization.

关 键 词：外汇储备 比例分析法 阿格沃尔模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]