跨境资本流动、流动性错配与银行稳定性--基于银行盈利能力与风险承担能力双重视角  

Cross-border Capital Flows, Fluidity Mismatch and Bank Stability--Based on the Dual Perspective of Bank Profitability and Risk Bearing Capacity

作　　者：顾海峰[1] 卞雨晨 Gu Hai-feng;Bian Yu-chen

机构地区：[1]东华大学旭日工商管理学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2021年第6期32-41,共10页Economist

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“跨境资本流动对商业银行信贷风险的影响机理及政策研究”(20YJA790014)。

摘　　要：本文选取2010—2019年中国372家商业银行年度数据对跨境资本流动对银行稳定性的影响及其作用机制进行了实证分析。研究表明:(1)跨境资本流动对银行稳定性具有抑制作用。在盈利能力层面,跨境资本流动对城农商行稳定性的抑制力度更大;在风险承担能力层面,跨境资本流动对国有与股份制银行稳定性的抑制力度更大。(2)直接投资渠道下跨境资本流动会促进银行稳定性,但间接投资渠道下跨境资本流动会抑制银行稳定性。(3)经济政策不确定性提高会加剧跨境资本流动对银行稳定性的抑制作用,银行业景气度提高会减弱跨境资本流动对银行稳定性的抑制作用。(4)跨境资本流动通过加大银行流动性错配而降低了银行稳定性,"跨境资本流动-流动性错配-银行稳定性"的传导渠道有效。This paper conducts an empirical analysis on the impact of cross-border capital flows on bank stability and its mechanism by selecting annual data of 372 commercial banks in China from 2010 to 2019.This result shows that:(1)Cross-border capital flows have an inhibiting effect on bank stability.In terms of profitability,cross-border capital flows have a greater impact on the stability of urban-rural commercial bank.In terms of risk bearing capacity,cross-border capital flows have a greater impact on the stability of state-owned and joint-stock bank.(2)Cross-border capital flows under direct investment channels promote bank stability,but cross-border capital flows under indirect investment channels inhibit bank stability.(3)Increased economic policy uncertainty aggravates the restraint of cross-border capital flows on bank stability,and the increase in the banking industry’s prosperity weakens the restraint of cross-border capital flows on bank stability.(4)Cross-border capital flow reduces bank stability by increasing the mismatch of bank liquidity,and the transmission channel of"cross-border capital flow-liquidity mismatch-bank stability"is effective.

关 键 词：跨境资本流动 银行稳定性 流动性错配 经济政策不确定性 银行业景气度 

分 类 号：F830.5[经济管理—金融学]