基于热带印-太海温异常主要模态的夏季西太平洋副热带高压预测模型构建  

Prediction models for summertime Western Pacific Subtropical High based on the leading SSTA modes in the tropical Indo-Pacific sector

作　　者：钱代丽[1] 管兆勇[1] 徐菊艳[1] QIAN Daili;GUAN Zhaoyong;XU Juyan(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2021年第3期405-417,共13页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510201);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406024);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(41330425);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)。

摘　　要：利用1981—2018年国家气候中心的西太平洋副热带高压(Western Pacific Subtropical High,以下简称“西太副高”或“WPSH”)特征指数、美国国家海洋和大气管理局海表温度、美国气候预测中心NINO3.4指数资料,对热带印-太海洋海温异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)主要模态及其与西太副高变动的可能联系进行了探讨,并基于这些联系建立了西太副高面积、强度和西脊点异常的预报方程。结果表明,热带印-太海洋上最重要的SSTA模态为纬向三极型,其次是纬向偶极型和东南-西北向跨南、北半球的“跷跷板”异常。这三种模态解释了印-太海洋海温异常中61.58%的方差,与太平洋El Nio、印度洋海盆尺度模、Ningaloo Nio等异常信号的出现密切相关。另外,这三种模态与夏季WPSH异常活动存在紧密联系。基于过去30 a稳定的相关关系建立的预报模型可较好地预报未来8 a夏季WPSH面积、强度和西脊点的异常。This study utilized the monthly NOAA sea surface temperature(SST)data for the past 38 years,as well as the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)characteristic indexes of the National Climate Center(NCC),and the NINO3.4 indexes of the United States Climate Prediction Center(CPC).The main modes of the SST anomalies(SSTA)on the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean were examined using the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)and linear regression analysis methods.In addition,the possible relationships between those modes and the intensities and locations of the anomalies of the WPSH were examined.Finally,based on the observed relationships,prediction models of the area were established,which included the intensities and west ridge point indexes of the WPSH.The results showed that the three leading modes explained 61.58%of the variances of the SSTA in the Indo-Pacific Ocean,which accurately reflected the main characteristics of the SSTA.Among these,it was determined that the most important SSTA mode(EOF1)in the Indo-Pacific Ocean was a zonal tripolar mode,which explained 39.73%of the variances of the SSTA,and displayed periods of approximately 5 years and 11 years.In terms of seasonal variations,it was observed to be the most obvious during the winter months.The second mode(EOF2)showed a dipole distribution of positive anomalies ranging from the tropical Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific Ocean,and negative anomalies in the central Pacific Ocean.It was also found to have a 3-year interannual period and an obvious long-term linear trend.The spatial field of the third mode(EOF3)displayed a dipole type over the southern Indian Ocean and another dipole type over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.It also had the appearance of“seesaw”anomalies between the southeastern Indian Ocean and the tropical central Pacific Ocean,on both sides of the marine continents(MC).The time coefficients of both the EOF2 and EOF3 displayed two peaks per year.The former was mainly obvious during the months of June and October,and the latter was most obvious

关 键 词：热带印度洋-太平洋 海温异常 西太平洋副热带高压 北半球夏季 气候预测 

分 类 号：P73[天文地球—海洋科学]