基于改进组合赋权-动态模糊理论的装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险评价  

Safety Risk Assessment of Hoisting Construction of Prefabricated BuildingsBased on Improved Combined Weighting-dynamic Fuzzy Theory

作　　者：田学泽 胡庆国[1,2] 何忠明[1,2] TIAN Xueze;HU Qingguo;HE Zhongming(Intelligent Construction and Operation and Maintenance Management of Transportation Infrastructure Key Laboratory of Hunan University,Changsha 410114,China;School of Traffic&Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通基础设施智慧建造与运维管理湖南省高校重点实验室,湖南长沙410114 [2]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2021年第3期187-193,共7页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

摘　　要：为准确评价装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险等级并反映风险变化趋势,提出一种基于改进组合赋权-动态模糊理论的评价模型。综合考虑装配式建筑吊装施工特点,以人员、设备、构件、管理与环境等5个方面为视角识别并筛选出23个二级评价指标,并以此构建装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险评价指标体系;采用改进层次分析法耦合熵权法的改进组合赋权法计算各级评价指标权重;运用动态模糊理论计算各级评价指标的动态模糊值,从而直观反映出各级评价指标与总体的风险等级及其变化趋势。以黄石市某装配式建筑项目为实例对该方法进行验证。研究结果表明:该项目吊装施工安全风险等级为较低,且具有向较低等级发展的趋势,评价结果与调研结果一致。评价方法可客观反映装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险评价过程中的模糊性与随机性,提高其风险评价的精度;评价模型可直观反映装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险的变化趋势,有效实现动静评价相结合,为类似工程风险评价提供参考。In order to accurately evaluate the safety risk level of prefabricated building hoisting construction and reflect the trend of risk changes,an evaluation model based on improved combined weighting-dynamic fuzzy theory is proposed.Comprehensively considering the characteristics of prefabricated building hoisting construction,from the perspective of personnel,equipment,components,management and environment,23 secondary evaluation indexes are identified and screened out,and the safety risk evaluation index of prefabricated building hoisting construction is constructed based on this system.The improved combination weighting method of the improved analytic hierarchy process coupled with the entropy method is used to calculate the weights of the evaluation indicators at all levels;the dynamic fuzzy theory is used to calculate the dynamic fuzzy value of the evaluation indicators at all levels,thereby directly reflecting the evaluation indicators at all levels and the overall risk level and its changing trend.A prefabricated construction project in Huangshi City is used as an example to verify the method.The research results show that the safety risk level of the hoisting construction of the project is low,and it has a tendency to develop to a lower level.The evaluation results are consistent with the survey results.The evaluation method can objectively reflect the ambiguity and randomness in the safety risk evaluation process of prefabricated building hoisting construction and improve the accuracy of risk evaluation;the evaluation model can directly reflect the changing trend of safety risk in prefabricated building hoisting construction and effectively realize the dynamic and static evaluation.In combination,it provides reference for risk assessment of similar projects.

关 键 词：装配式建筑 吊装施工安全 风险评价 改进组合赋权 动态模糊理论 

分 类 号：TU714[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]