中国中东部水资源承载力评价及障碍因子识别  

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and diagnosis of obstacle factors in mid-eastern China

作　　者：李静[1] 王飞东 李强雷 LI Jing;WANG Feidong;LI Qianglei(Neijiang Vocational and Technical College,Neijiang 641100,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Upstream Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Yellow River Conservancy Committee,Lanzhou 730030,China)

机构地区：[1]内江职业技术学院,四川内江641100 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [3]黄河水利委员会上游水文水资源局,甘肃兰州730030

出　　处：《人民长江》2021年第6期58-64,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51725902)。

摘　　要：为了正确认识地区水资源支撑能力,促进水资源可持续利用,针对中国中东部地区构建了涵盖水资源、社会经济、生态环境3个子系统的水资源承载力评价指标体系,采用变异系数法和熵值法组合赋权的TOPSIS模型,对中东部地区19个省份2011-2017年的水资源承载力状况进行综合评价;同时,借助障碍因子诊断模型,识别了承载力的主要障碍因子。结果表明:①研究期内,中东部地区水资源承载力呈现出低值小幅度的波动不变趋势,整体处于中级水资源承载力水平,承载力有待进一步提升;②19个省份中,仅上海市和江苏省的水资源承载力处于警戒及以下水平,其余17个省份均处于中级及良好水平;③生态环境用水率、供水模数、人口密度、水资源开发利用率、人均水资源量和产水模数是影响中东部地区水资源承载力的主要障碍因子。研究结果可为中东部地区水资源可持续利用及其管理政策的制定提供实证依据。In order to correctly understand the supporting capacity of regional water resources and promote the sustainable development of water resources,this paper constructs an evaluation index system of water resources in mid-eastern China,covering water resources,social economy and ecological environment three criteria layers.The water resources carrying capacities of 19 provinces in mid-eastern China from 2011 to 2017 are evaluated comprehensively by the TOPSIS model combined with variation coefficient method and entropy method,and the main obstacle factors of carrying capacity are identified by the obstacle factor diagnosis model.The results show that:①during the study period,the value of water resources carrying capacity in mid-eastern China is low and the fluctuation range is small,which is in the middle level of the water resources carrying capacity,and needs to be further improved.②Among the 19 provinces,only Shanghai City and Jiangsu Province are at the warning or below level of water resources carrying capacity,and the other 17 provinces are at the intermediate and good level.③Environment water use rate,water supply modulus,population density,utilization ratio of water resources,water resources per capita and water production module are the main obstacle factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity in mid-eastern China.The results can provide empirical basis for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the formulation of management policies in mid-eastern China.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 障碍因子 组合权重 TOPSIS模型 中东部地区 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]