2020-2060年中国风电装机规模及其CO_(2)减排预测  

Forecast of China’s Wind Power Installed Capacity and Corresponding CO_(2) Reduction from 2020 to 2060

作　　者：王恰[1] WANG Qia(Institute of Quantitative and Technological Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《生态经济》2021年第7期13-21,共9页Ecological Economy

摘　　要：利用系统动力学模型对未来40年中国风电市场规模进行了预测和情景分析。研究发现:2060年中国风电装机将达到20.07亿千瓦(大约是2020年的7.1倍),年发电量约为3.85万亿千瓦时,风电在电力生产结构中的比重预计将提升至44.09%。按照可节省的标准煤估计,预计2020-2060年当年风电开发与利用累计可减少CO_(2)排放664.07亿吨。研究结果可为我国有序推进风电开发和电网建设,引导国内风电产业高质量发展,实现碳排放达峰目标与碳中和愿景提供参考。This paper built a system dynamics model to forecast and analyze the scale of China’s wind power market in the next 30 years.The study finds that China will have a total cumulative installed wind power capacity of 2007 GW in 2060(about 7.1 times of 2020),the annual generation of wind power is expected to be about 3.85 trillion kW·h.According to the standard coal quantity to be saved,it is estimated that the development of wind power will cumulatively reduce CO_(2) emission by 66.41 billion tons from 2020 to 2060.The research results can provide reference for promoting wind power development and power grid construction in China,guiding the high-quality development of domestic wind power industry,and achieving the goal of carbon emission peak and carbon neutral vision.

关 键 词：风电 CO2减排 碳达峰 碳中和 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学] F062.2