对峙与合作:北极安全态势分析  

Confrontation and Cooperation:The Analysis of the Arctic Security Situation

作　　者：郭培清 厉召卿 Guo Peiqing;Li Shaoqing(School of International Affairs and Public Administration,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学国际事务与公共管理学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第4期70-80,共11页Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大专项“国际大变局下中国参与北极治理研究”(20VHQ011)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：北极冰融引发北极地缘政治变化,欧美国家与俄罗斯关系急遽恶化,相关国家的北极安全认知发生转折,美国将俄、中两国视为北极安全的最大威胁,俄罗斯不断提升北极安全地位予以应对。俄罗斯和欧美有关国家积极开展北极军备建设,增强军事活动,北极安全对峙升级,但总体上北极安全仍保持“低烈度”特性。对峙是北极安全的主流,但受制于北极特殊的自然条件和复杂的地缘政治环境,北极难以发生大规模军事冲突,相反在“低安全”等特定领域内相关国家却不得不进行合作,北极理事会和北极海岸警卫队论坛有望成为重要合作平台。由于美国对中国北极投资的安全化解读,美、俄全球对峙态势漫溢,使得北极安全走势更趋复杂,导致相关国家在斯匹茨卑尔根群岛主权权利与管辖权问题上、北方航道自由航行问题上存在爆发小规模冲突的可能性。The melting of Arctic sea ice has led to geopolitical changes in the Arctic.The relationship between the U.S.,European countriesand Russiais deteriorating continuously,and therefore there comes a shift in the Arctic security awareness of the concerning countries.The United States regards Russia and China as the most significant threat to the Arctic security,while Russia continues to upgrade its Arctic security status in response.Since Russia,the U.S.and European countries areincreasing the Arctic armaments and strengthening their military activities,the Arctic security confrontation escalates,but in general it remains a“low intensity”state.Confrontation is the mainstream of the Arctic security,but due to the special climatic and geographic conditions of the Arctic,large-scale military conflicts are difficult to occur.On the contrary,the relevant countries must cooperate in specific areas such as low security area,and the Arctic Council and the Arctic Coast Guard Forum are expected to become important platforms for cooperation.By virtue of the U.S.security-oriented interpretation of China’s Arctic investments and the spillover of the U.S.-Russian global confrontation,the Arctic security trend becomes more complicated,leading to the possibility of skirmishes between the relevant countries on the issue of sovereign rights and jurisdiction of the Spitsbergen Islands as well as the free navigation of the Northern Sea Rout.

关 键 词：北极 北极安全 俄罗斯 美国 大国博弈 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]