计及日特性和季特性的风矢量仿真模型及应用  

Wind Vector Generation Model Considering Daily and Seasonal Feature and Its Application

作　　者：李晗 邹建华[1] 张远航 杨保华 LI Han;ZOU Jianhua;ZHANG Yuanhang;YANG Baohua(College of Electrical Engineering&New Energy,China Three Gorges Univ.,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学电气与新能源学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第4期85-92,共8页Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金项目(2019CFB207)。

摘　　要：风况日特性和季特性可能会对系统充裕度造成较大影响.为此本文将风速和风向定义为方向性矢量——风矢量,提出计及日特性和季特性的风矢量仿真模型.该模型依据日周期将实测风矢量数据划分为24 h风矢量数据集,应用基于正交分解准则的聚类算法和copula方法,划分每小时风矢量状态和估计风矢量概率分布,建立计及日特性的风矢量马尔可夫链.为计及风矢量季特性,采用最优季度系数修正计及日特性的模拟风矢量样本,得到计及日特性和季特性的修正风矢量样本.结合Jensen尾流模型和时序蒙特卡罗模拟法,提出计及日特性和季特性的含风电系统充裕度评估方法.结果表明:在不同风机布局情形和不同峰值负荷条件下,忽略风矢量的季特性可能导致过于乐观的系统充裕度评估结果.Due to the rapid development of wind power permeability, the daily feature and seasonal feature of wind condition may have a great impact on the system adequacy. Therefore, wind speed and wind direction is defined in this paper as a directional vector, that is wind vector. Meanwhile, the simulation model of wind vector considering daily and seasonal feature is proposed. The measured wind vector data is divided into 24 data sets according to the daily periodicity of the measured data in the model, then the clustering algorithm based on the orthogonal decomposition method and the copula method is applied. Moreover, the states of wind vector are divided and the probability distribution of wind vector in each state is estimated. In order to take the seasonal feature of wind vector into consideration, optimal quarterly coefficient is adopted to correct the modified samples of wind vector with the daily feature. Furthermore, the wind vector samples considering both daily and seasonal features are obtained. Consequently, an adequacy evaluation method in wind-power-integrated system considering the daily and seasonal feature of wind vector is presented in this paper through combining the proposed wind vector model with Jensen wake model and Sequential Monte Carlo Method. The results show that the evaluation of wind-power-integrated system may be more optimistic if the seasonal feature of wind vector is ignored.

关 键 词：风矢量 日特性 季特性 聚类分析 马尔科夫链 充裕度评估 

分 类 号：TM743[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]