城乡社保融合如何影响人口迁移?——基于全国9省市人口迁移数据的实证分析  

How does Urban and Rural Integration of Social Security Affect Migration?——Empirical Analysis Based on the Population Migration Data of 9 Provinces and Cities in China

作　　者：城乡社保一体化与人口迁移课题组 韩峰(指导) 欧阳华生(指导)[2] 万树(指导)[2] The Research Group on Integration of Urban and Rural Social Security and Population Migration

机构地区：[1]不详 [2]南京审计大学经济学院

出　　处：《公共财政研究》2021年第2期18-38,共21页Public Finance Research Journal

摘　　要：本文基于全国9省市人口迁移的微观调研数据,采用条件logit模型系统探讨了城乡社保融合对人口城乡迁移的影响。结果显示,城乡社保融合通过降低生活成本、提升收入水平显著促进了人口由农村向城市迁移,且随着城乡社保融合程度加强,社保能否随户口迁移越来越成为影响人口迁移的重要因素。该结果在更换核心解释变量指标、更换样本数据和控制内生性后依然较为稳健。进一步研究发现,人口月均收入在城乡社保融合促进人口城乡迁移过程中发挥着中介效应的作用,且以养老保险、基本医疗保险为主要内容的城乡社保融合对省内跨市人口迁移的影响效果明显大于跨省人口迁移,但未对市内跨县人口迁移产生明显影响。本文结论对于进一步优化城乡社保制度,促进人口城镇化,实现乡村振兴具有重要的现实意义。Based on the micro survey data of population migration in 9 provinces and cities,this paper uses conditional logit model system to discuss the impact of urban-rural social security integration on population migration.The results show that rural-urban social security integration significantly promotes population migration from rural to urban areas by reducing living costs and raising income levels.With the improvement of rural-urban social security integration,whether social security can follow the registered permanent residence migration becomes an increasingly important determinant of population migration.The results were still stable after changing core explanatory variables,changing sample data and controlling endogeneity.Further study found that the average monthly population income plays a mediating role in the process of urban-rural social security integration to promote population migration.Moreover,the effect of urban and rural social security integration,with endowment insurance and basic medical insurance as the main contents,on inter-city population migration within the province is significantly greater than that of inter-province population migration,but it has no obvious effect on inter-county population migration within the city.The conclusions of this paper are of great practical significance to further optimize urban and rural social security system,promote population urbanization,win the battle of poverty alleviation in an all-round way,and realize rural revitalization.

关 键 词：城乡社会保障 人口迁移 人口城镇化 条件logit模型 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]