黄河流域水资源承载力评价及障碍因素研究  

Study on Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Obstacle Factors in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：唐家凯[1,2] 丁文广[1] 李玮丽 刘兴德 TANG Jiakai;DING Wenguang;LI Weili;LIU Xingde(College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Geological Hazards Prevention Institute,Gansu Academy of Science,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]甘肃省科学院地质自然灾害防治研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2021年第7期73-77,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20100102);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0902)。

摘　　要：采用黄河流域九省(区)2004—2018年统计资料,从水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个方面构建水资源承载力评价指标体系,运用熵权法和层次分析法获得各指标权重,利用综合评价模型评价黄河流域水资源承载力,并利用障碍度函数定量诊断影响黄河流域水资源承载力提升的主要障碍因素。研究结果表明:2004—2018年,黄河流域水资源承载力呈现缓慢上升趋势,整体向良好方向发展,空间上呈现明显的波动特征且差异性明显,但省(区)间的差距呈现逐年变小趋势;黄河流域水资源承载力受水资源的过度开发利用和生态环境破坏双重制约,人均水资源量、水资源开发程度是制约黄河流域九省(区)水资源承载力提升的主要障碍因素。建议有关部门完善黄河流域用水方式转变和水资源管理方面的制度,推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展。According to the data of the nine provinces and administrative regions in the Yellow River basin from 2004 to 2018,this paper constructed an evaluation index system for water resources carrying capacity from the four aspects of water resources,society,economy,and ecological environment.In addition,the entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process were applied to generate comprehensive index weights;the water resources carrying capacity of the Yellow River basin was evaluated by using the comprehensive evaluation model;and the major obstacles to the improvement of the water resources carrying capacity of the basin were quantitatively identified by the obstacle degree function.The results show that:a)from 2004 to 2018,the water resources carrying capacity of the Yellow River basin presents a slow upward trend,with an overall orderly pattern;b)obvious spatial fluctuation characteristics and differences are found,while the gaps between the in⁃vestigated provinces and regions decrease on a yearly basis;c)the water resources carrying capacity of the nine provinces and regions in the Yellow River basin has been impaired by the following major factors of over-exploitation and utilization of water resources and destruction of the ecological environment,as well as the amount of water resources per capita and degree of water resources development.Based on the re⁃sults,relevant authorities should improve the transformation of water use patterns and institutions of water resources management in the Yellow River basin,thus promoting the ecological protection of the Yellow River basin and achieving high-quality development.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 熵权法 层次分析法 障碍度函数 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1