多层次母线负荷预测方法研究  

Research on Multilevel Bus Load Forecasting Method

作　　者：蒋燕 陈凯 王有香 周涵 张聪通 邵晓茹 JIANG Yan;CHEN Kai;WANG Youxiang;ZHOU Han;ZHANG Congtong;SHAO Xiaoru(Yunnan Power Dispatch and Control Center,Kunming 650011,China;Beijing Tsingsoft Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100000,China)

机构地区：[1]云南电力调度控制中心,云南昆明650011 [2]北京清软创新科技股份有限公司,北京100000

出　　处：《电工技术》2021年第11期46-49,共4页Electric Engineering

摘　　要：母线负荷预测不仅是推进调度精益化管理的重要手段,而且对于节能调度的推行、发电计划的制定、电力现货的交易等工作具有至关重要的作用。目前绝大多数短期负荷预测都是系统级的,母线负荷预测很难直接套用系统负荷预测的方法,因此提出一种基于挂接电源、终端用户及检修、气象等因素的多层次母线负荷预测方法。通过该方法可实现母线负荷预测的精细化分析预测,有效提高预测精度。Bus load forecasting is not only an important means to promote lean management of scheduling,but also plays a crucial role in the implementation of energy-saving scheduling,generation planning and spot trading of power.At present,most short-term load forecasting is system level,so it is difficult to apply the method of system load forecasting directly to bus load forecasting.Therefore,a multi-level bus load forecasting method based on factors such as connected power supply,terminal users,maintenance,and weather is proposed.Through this method,refined analysis and prediction of bus load forecasting can be realized,and the prediction accuracy can be effectively improved.

关 键 词：母线负荷预测 小电源负荷预测 用户负荷预测 气象因素 检修计划 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]