群体免疫理论与COVID-19的管控  

Herd Immunity Theory and the Control of COVID-19

作　　者：王善钻[1] 林庆育[1] 林群英[1] 张春霞[1] Wang Shanzuan;Lin Qingyu;Lin Qunying;Zhang Chunxia(Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine,Affiliated Hospital of Putian University,Putian,351100)

机构地区：[1]莆田学院附属医院呼吸与危重症医学科,莆田351100

出　　处：《基因组学与应用生物学》2021年第1期474-480,共7页Genomics and Applied Biology

基　　金：2018福建省教育厅中青年教师教育科研项目(JT180464)资助。

摘　　要：2019年12月底,不明原因的肺炎病例在全球爆发,经检测是新型冠状病毒感染所致。感染该病毒引起的肺炎被命名为"COVID-19"。从早期的"不明肺炎",到如今疫情在全球持续传播,急剧增长的肺炎病例确诊数字背后,各个国家(如中国,英国)对于新型冠状病毒的认知和防范都有着哪些不同的应对策略?热搜中的英国的"群体免疫"策略是否可行?为重点解决第二个问题,本研究试图通过介绍群体免疫的原理、获得方式以及以往的案例,结合应用于COVID-19的理论模型,讨论并阐述"群体免疫"策略在COVID-19管控中的成效及可行性。结果表明,在遏制COVID-19传播过程中,"群体免疫"策略实施较困难。本研究可为其他传染病的预防研究提供参考。The novel coronavirus infection was detected in the world at the end of December 2019. The pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus infection is named "COVID-19". Novel coronavirus has different coping strategies from various countries such as China and the UK, from the early diagnosis of "unknown pneumonia" to the continuous spread of the epidemic and the rapid growth of pneumonia cases. Is Britain’s "herd immunity" strategy working? To focus on the second question, this study attempts to discuss and illustrate the effectiveness and feasi bility of the "herd immunity" strategy in the management and control of COVID-19 by introducing the principles and methods of herd immunity, as well as previous cases, in combination with the theoretical model applied to COVID-19. The results showed that the "herd immunity" strategy is difficult to implement in the process of containing the spread of covid-19. This study provided a reference for the prevention research of other infectious diseases.

关 键 词：群体免疫 COVID-19 群体免疫阈值 基本繁殖数 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181.8[医药卫生—内科学]