耦合水资源环境的城镇用地扩张多方案预景与规划路径——以天津市为例  

Coupling Water Resource and Environment in Urban Expansion Modeling and Planning Strategies:A Case Study of Tianjin

作　　者：贾梦圆 陈天[1] 臧鑫宇[1] JIA Mengyuan;CHEN Tian;ZANG Xinyu

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑学院

出　　处：《城市规划学刊》2021年第3期58-65,共8页Urban Planning Forum

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“城市新区水环境系统与规划设计优化技术”(项目编号:2018YFC0704603)项目资助。

摘　　要：协调城镇发展与水资源环境保护的关系是建设生态文明社会的关键议题。秉承"以水定城"的城镇发展思路,整合水资源承载力评估、水生态敏感区域识别、土地利用变化模拟等研究方法,构建耦合水资源环境的城镇用地扩张模拟模型。以天津市为例,应用该模型预景在三种水资源开发利用方案和两种水生态敏感区域保护方案条件下,至2035年城镇社会经济发展和用地扩张趋势。研究表明:(1)水资源承载力将成为制约天津市社会经济发展的主要因素;(2)滨海新区海岸带、津城与滨城的中间区域的城水空间矛盾最为突出;(3)该模拟模型能够有效评估水资源承载力、识别城镇用地扩张热点地区,为优化双评价方法、制定水环境管理目标、细化空间管控边界提供技术支撑。Balancing the protection and development of water resource and environment has become a critical issue in promoting high-quality and sustainable urbanization in China.However,existing modeling studies on urban expansion have been built on limited knowledge on how to take the local water resource and environment into consideration.Therefore,this study aims to explore a modeling method by integrating the characteristics of water resource and the environment in a period of urban expansion.The modeling employs methods of water resource carrying capacity evaluation,water sensitive area identification,and land use change modeling.Taking Tianjin as an example,this paper applies the modeling method to predict the scale and spatial pattern of urban expansion till 2035 under three water management scenarios and two water environment protection scenarios.The result reveals that water supply and water pollution will be two major factors limiting Tianjin’s urban expansion and it also locates where conflicts between urban expansion and ecological environment protection occur.The case study also shows that the proposed modeling method can be used to evaluate water carrying capacity and identify water sensitive areas,both of which provide key insights into the selection of water management indices and the designation of spatial management boundaries in the territory spatial planning process.

关 键 词：城镇用地扩张 水资源环境 规划决策支持 模拟方法 天津市 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]