低温对天津日光温室黄瓜产量的影响  

Effect of Low Temperature on Solar Greenhouse Cucumber Yield in Tianjin

作　　者：柳芳[1] 陈思宁[1] 黎贞发[1] Liu Fang;Chen Sining;Li Zhenfa(Tianjin Climate Center, Tianjin 300074, China)

机构地区：[1]天津市气候中心,天津300074

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2021年第3期69-75,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201521);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J075)。

摘　　要：天气指数保险不仅能有效地保障灾害损失,同时操作简单,理赔成本低,规避了逆向选择和道德风险,是一种农业保险的创新方式。为减轻设施蔬菜灾害损失,促进生产稳定发展,以低温为例,以黄瓜为代表,基于20052014年天津13个气象站的气象资料和20132015年蔬菜产量资料,根据低温致灾指标与蔬菜减产率的对应关系及其低温天气的历史发生概率,设计包含致灾气象指标、灾害持续天数、减产率的日光温室黄瓜果期低温农业保险天气产品。结果表明:日平均气温在-6~-3℃且持续10天以上,可能导致温室内蔬菜产量降低25%;或者日平均气温低于-6℃且持续8天以上,可能导致温室内蔬菜产量降低34%。上述两种天气发生时保险公司可开始进行赔付,发生概率为十年三遇。研究成果为以后设施蔬菜灾害天气指数保险产品的上市提供数据支撑。Weather index insurance can not only effectively guarantee disaster loss,but also have simple claim procedure with low cost.It can help avoid adverse selection and moral hazard,and is an innovative way for agricultural insurance.In order to reduce the disaster loss of facility vegetables and promote the stable development of vegetable production,according to the corresponding relationship between the disaster index of low temperature injury and the reduction rate of vegetable production and the historical probability of occurrence of low temperature injury,this paper designs the agricultural insurance weather products including the disaster-induced meteorological index and the low temperature chilling injury in cucumber fruit stage in solar greenhouse with continuous days and reduced yield rate by taking the low temperature injury as an example,the cucumber as a representative,and using the meteorological data from 13 stations in Tianjin during 20052014 and the vegetable production data in 20132015.The results show that if the daily average temperature(-6-3℃)lasts for more than 10 days,the vegetable production in the greenhouse may be reduced by 25%;or if the daily average temperature is lower than-6℃and lasts for more than 8 days,the vegetable production in the greenhouse may be reduced by 34%.When the above two kinds of disaster weather occur,the insurance company can start to pay compensation,and the probability of occurrence is three times in ten years.The research results can provide data support for the listing of weather index insurance products of facility vegetable disaster in the future.

关 键 词：日光温室 黄瓜 低温 天气指数保险 

分 类 号：S162.43[农业科学—农业气象学]