基于WRF模式的紫外线指数逐小时预报模型  

An Hourly Ultraviolet Index Prediction Model Based on WRF Model

作　　者：应爽 谢静芳 刘海峰[3] 于月明 王宁[3] Ying Shuang;Xie Jingfang;Liu Haifeng;Yu Yueming;Wang Ning(Changchun Meteorological Office, Changchun 130000, China;Jilin Meteorological Service Center, Changchun 130062, China;Jilin Meteorological Observatory, Changchun 130062, China)

机构地区：[1]长春市气象局,长春130000 [2]吉林省气象服务中心,长春130062 [3]吉林省气象台,长春130062

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2021年第3期106-111,共6页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41875119、41630424);中国气象局省级气象科研所科技创新发展项目(SSFZ201806)。

摘　　要：为提升紫外线预报和服务能力,探索长春市紫外线指数的精细化预报方法,以实际业务中易于获取的大气参数为依据,采用易实现的统计预报方法,建立了逐小时的长春市紫外线指数预报模型。建模过程中,针对20122014年长春市紫外线逐小时实况数据,采用以NCEP/FNL资料为初始场的中尺度数值模式WRF进行模拟,在常规气象要素基础上,增加输出与辐射相关的物理量,分别采用以气象要素为因子及以气象要素和辐射要素为因子的两种方式进行建模并对比。结果发现,综合辐射因子和气象因子后得到的模型预报效果更好。因此,以综合气象因子和辐射因子的方式,分季节建立了长春市未来24 h紫外线指数的逐小时预报模型,并进行了试报检验。结果表明:气象因子当中,地面及低层大气气温与紫外线指数呈现较明显的正相关;辐射因子当中,地表接收到的短波辐射通量与地面紫外线观测值统计关系最为密切;部分辐射因子与紫外线指数的相关性比大多数气象因子的更好。综合气象因子和辐射因子且划分季节的预报模型,试报结果1级以内拟合率平均达92%,且秋冬两季的方程稳定性和1级以内拟合效果较不分季节的预报模型的有所提高。In order to improve the ultraviolet forecast and service ability,and to explore refined forecast methods of Ultraviolet(UV)Index,an hourly prediction model of the UV Index in Changchun city is established with the easily-realized statistical forecast method and the atmospheric parameters easily obtained in practical operation.During the modeling process,in view of the hourly UV Index observation data of Changchun city from 2012 to 2014,the mesoscale numerical model WRF with NCEP/FNL data as the initial field is used for simulation.On the basis of the conventional meteorological elements,physical quantities directly related to ultraviolet radiation are added to the output.Two methods of taking meteorological elements as factors and taking meteorological elements and radiation elements as factors are respectively used for the modeling and comparison.The results show that the prediction effect of the model obtained by integrating the radiation elements and meteorological elements is better.Therefore,the hourly forecast model of the next 24 h UV Index in Changchun city is established by combining meteorological elements and radiation elements,and the test to it is carried out.The main results are as follows:Among the meteorological elements,the surface and lower atmosphere temperature shows an obvious positive correlation with the UV Index.Among the radiation elements,the downward short-wave radiation flux on the surface is most closely related to the surface UV observations.Some radiation elements are more correlated to the UV Index than most meteorological elements.As for the seasonal forecast model which uses both meteorological elements and radiation elements,the fitting rate is 92%within level 1.The stability and the fitting effect of UV Index forecasting equations in autumn and winter are better than that of the non-seasonal forecasting equation.

关 键 词：紫外线指数 逐小时预报 预报模型 数值模式 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]