近35年南四湖水域面积动态变化及驱动力分析  

Dynamic Change and Driving Force Analysis of Nansi Lake Water Area in Recent 35 Years

作　　者：侯学会 徐洪彪 李新华[1] 王猛[1] 隋学艳[1] 梁守真[1] Hou Xuehui;Xu Hongbiao;Li Xinhua;Wang Meng;Sui Xueyan;Liang Shouzhen(Shandong Academy of Agriculural Sciences,Jinan 250100,China;Linyi Hydrology Bureau,Linyi 276001,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省农业科学院,山东济南250100 [2]临沂市水文局,山东临沂276001

出　　处：《山东农业科学》2021年第6期127-132,共6页Shandong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：山东省农业科学院农业科技创新工程项目(CXGC2016A08,CXGC2018E06)。

摘　　要：水域面积变化是湿地生态系统对气候和社会经济发展影响的明显反映。综合改进归一化差异水体指数(modified normalized difference water index,MNDWI)和阈值法,探讨了1984—2018年南四湖水域面积变化趋势,并利用偏相关分析探究水域面积变化的主要驱动因子。结果表明:南四湖水域面积有明显的阶段特征,总体看,近35年南四湖水域面积呈增加趋势,但以2002特大干旱年为界点,1984—2002年及2003—2018年两个时间段的水域面积减少趋势均比较明显;近35年一直被水覆盖区域仅占9.97%,低于10年的区域占25.26%。与其他湖泊不同,南四湖水域面积与气象因子的相关性较弱,仅在枯水年表现出与气温的显著负相关(r=-0.746,P<0.01),而与研究区明显增加的降水量相关性不显著,水域面积主要受养殖业发展和生态调水政策的影响。In this study,the Nansi Lake water area in different period was extracted using modified normalized difference water index(MNDWI)and threshold value,and the dynamic change from 1984 to 2018 was analyzed.The responses of water area to temperature and precipitation were also discussed based on partial correlation analysis.The results showed that the water area of Nansi Lake had obvious stage characteristics.In the past 35 years,the water area had been increasing.However,with the year of 2002 as dividing time,the decreasing trend of water area were both obvious in the two periods of 1984-2002 and 2003-2018.During the study period,the area always covered with water only accounted for 9.97%,while the area covered with water for less than 10 years accounted for 25.26%.As the view of the partial-correlation between climate and water area,the negative relationship between temperature and water area was significant(r=-0.746,P<0.001)only in the dry years(1984-2002),but the correlation with the obvious increased rainfall in the study area was not significant.The water area was mainly affected by the development of aquaculture and ecological water transfer policy.

关 键 词：南四湖 水域面积变化 气候因素 人类活动 Landsat影像 

分 类 号：S181.3[农业科学—农业基础科学]