油茶产量对关键生长时期热积温和高温日数的响应  

Responses of Camellia oleifera Yield to Heat Accumulation Temperature and High Temperature Days in Key Growth Period

作　　者：谢佰承[1,2] 郭凌曜 杜东升 谭俨 王国栋 Xie Baicheng;Guo Lingyao;Du Dongsheng;Tan Yan;Wang Guodong(College of Science,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100;Hunan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Changsha 410118;Hunan Province Climate Center,Changsha 410118)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学理学院,杨凌712100 [2]气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,长沙410118 [3]湖南省气候中心,长沙410118

出　　处：《林业科学》2021年第5期34-42,共9页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金项目(2020JJ4395);湖南省科技重大专项(2018NK1030);国家重点研发计划课题(2019YFD1002203)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究气象因子对油茶产量的影响,确定油茶关键生长时期的高温干旱指标及其影响关系,为油茶高温干旱灾害预警提供参考。【方法】基于湖南省不同区域油茶标准化产量数据和2007—2015年气象资料,包括油茶果实膨大高峰期和油脂转化期的平均气温、降水、日照时数、降水日数以及≥30℃热积温和≥30℃高温日数等气象指标,对油茶标准化产量进行回归分析,确定可指示高温干旱出现的因素和阈值,并建立产量预测模型。【结果】在果实膨大高峰期,降水日数与油茶标准化产量呈显著负相关;在果实膨大高峰期和油脂转化期,≥30℃热积温和≥30℃高温日数均与油茶标准化产量呈显著负相关。油茶果实膨大高峰期≥30℃热积温达到36.7℃或≥30℃高温日数达到26天,以及油脂转化期≥30℃热积温达到13.6℃或≥30℃高温日数达到10天,为高温干旱出现的阈值。采用果实膨大高峰期≥30℃日热积温预测油茶标准化产量的模型效果最好。【结论】可将导致高温干旱灾害的果实膨大高峰期和油脂转化期的热积温或高温日数阈值作为油茶产量降低的预警信号,并提出防灾减灾措施;采用果实膨大高峰期至油脂转化期≥30℃热积温和≥30℃高温日数建立油茶产量预测模型,可较好进行油茶产量预测预报,为油茶管理决策提供参考。【Objective】This paper aims to determine the high temperature and drought index and its influence relationship in the key growth period of Camellia oleifera by investigating the influence of meteorological factors on the yield of C.oleifera,so as to early warn the high temperature and drought disaster of C.oleifera.【Method】In this study,the standardized yield data of C.oleifera in different regions of Hunan Province and the meteorological data from^(2)007 to 2015 were collected.The data included the average temperature,precipitation,sunshine hours,days of precipitation and days of heat accumulation temperature≥30℃and high temperature≥30℃in the fruit expansion period and oil conversion period of C.oleifera.A regression analysis was carried out with the standardized yield of C.oleifera and the meteorological data to determine the factors and thresholds that could indicate the occurrence of drought,and to establish a yield prediction model.【Result】At the fruit expansion stage,there was a significantly negative correlation in between the precipitation days and the standardized yield of C.oleifera.In the fruit expansion stage and the oil conversion stage,the heat accumulation temperature≥30℃and the days of high temperature≥30℃were significantly negatively correlated with the standardized yield of C.oleifera.The threshold values of high temperature and drought were when the accumulated temperature of≥30℃reached 36.7℃or the high temperature≥30℃lasted for 26 days in the fruit expansion stage,and the accumulated temperature of≥30℃reached 13.6℃or the high temperature≥30℃lasted for 10 days in the oil conversion stage.The results showed that the model with daily accumulated temperature≥30℃in fruit expansion stage was the best for predicting standardized yield of C.oleifera.【Conclusion】The threshold values of accumulated temperature or high temperature days in fruit expansion period and oil conversion period,which would lead to high temperature and drought disaster,can be

关 键 词：油茶 热积温 高温时数 高温日数 干旱监测 产量预测 

分 类 号：S718.43[农业科学—林学]