能源转型下新能源电力系统概率风险评估  

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of New Energy Power System in the Context of Energy Transition:a Review

作　　者：别朝红[1,2,3] 潘超琼 陈叶 李芙蓉 BIE Zhaohong;PAN Chaoqiong;CHEN Ye;LI Furong(State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Smart Grid,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China;Department of Electronic&Electrical Engineering,University of Bath,Bath,BA27AY,UK)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学电力设备电气绝缘国家重点实验室,西安710049 [2]西安交通大学陕西省智能电网重点实验室,西安710049 [3]西安交通大学电气工程学院,西安710049 [4]英国巴斯大学电气工程学院,英国巴斯BA27AY

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报》2021年第7期1-11,共11页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51637008)。

摘　　要：当前我国正处在能源转型的关键时期,在碳达峰和碳中和背景下,高比例新能源接入带来的不确定性使得确定性的风险评估已经无法保障电力系统的安全可靠运行。概率风险评估是评估高度不确定性系统风险的有效工具,其旨在突破确定性风险评估基于风险长期平均数字特征无法对高概率低损失和低概率高损失事件进行区分的局限。本文首先阐述了新能源电力系统概率风险评估的迫切性,然后对其进行了概述,包括概率风险评估的含义、应用现状以及新能源电力系统概率风险评估的特点,继而在风险评估研究现状的基础上,从风险建模、评估、分析和决策4个层面论述了新能源出力模型和故障模式、概率风险评估核心算法和计算效率、多层次概率指标体系和薄弱环节识别方法、运行方式安排和设备备用规划决策等方面的关键问题。未来亟需从新能源出力与负荷之间的时空相关性以及新能源的相依故障模式、概率风险全分布评估的算法和全面提高计算效率的方法、基于分割多目标风险分析理论建立面向不同风险类型的多层次指标及薄弱环节识别体系、在优化模型的目标函数或者约束条件中计及概率风险指标的决策方法等方向展开研究。In the context of energy transition in China,the uncertainty from a high proportion of new energy has made the deterministic risk assessment unable to ensure safe and reliable operation of power system under the‘carbon peaking and carbon neutral’background.Probabilistic risk assessment is an effective tool to evaluate the risk of high uncertainty system,which aims to break through the limitation that the deterministic risk assessment based on the long-term average numerical characteristics of risk cannot distinguish the events with high probability and low loss from those with low probability and high loss.Firstly,this paper expounds the urgency for probabilistic risk assessment of new energy power system(PRANEPS).Then,PRANEPS is summarized including the meaning,application status of probabilistic risk assessment and characteristics of PRANEPS.Further,on the basis of the research status of risk assessment,this paper discusses the key issues of PRANEPS from four aspects of risk modeling,risk assessment,risk analysis and risk decision,such as the output model and failure mode of new energy,the core algorithm and calculation efficiency of probabilistic risk assessment,the multi-level probability index system and weak part recognition method,the operation mode and equipment spare planning decision-making.In the future,it is urgent to study temporal and spatial correlation between new energy and load,as well as dependent failure mode of new energy,probabilistic risk full distribution algorithm and improved calculation efficiency method,multi-level index and weak part recognition system for different risk types based on partitioned multi-objective risk method(PMRM),decision-making method considering probabilistic risk index in the objective function or constraint of optimization model.

关 键 词：新能源电力系统 概率风险评估 风险全分布 分割多目标风险分析 概率风险优化决策 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]