投资乘数常用测算方法的比较与评析  

Comparison and Analysis of Common Methods for Measuring Investment Multiplier

作　　者：高兴佑[1,2] 陈渝 GAO Xingyou;CHEN Yu(School of Economics and Management,Qujing Normal University,Qujing Yunnan 655011;School of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650093,China)

机构地区：[1]曲靖师范学院经济与管理学院,云南曲靖655011 [2]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《曲靖师范学院学报》2021年第3期103-109,共7页Journal of Qujing Normal University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金:项目“基于示能性视角的信息系统有效使用研究:维度、影响因素和形成机制”(71461016)。

摘　　要：投资乘数是研究投资对经济增长的拉动效应的重要工具.常用的投资乘数的计算公式有四个,分别是GDP增量与投资增量之比、两部门经济的乘数、三部门经济的乘数和四部门经济的乘数.常用的投资乘数的计算方法有两种:边际分析法和回归分析法.这些乘数在理论上都是成熟的、可靠的,但计算结果存在较大差异,这给实际应用带来了困难和困惑.究竟哪个投资乘数公式计算出的结果更准确、与现实更吻合呢?依据1980—2019年四十年的数据用边际分析法和回归分析法进行了实证研究.结果表明,用回归分析法计算出的四部门经济的投资乘数最准确和可靠.The investment multiplier,is an important tool to study the pulling effect of investment on economic growth.There are four commonly used formulas for calculating the investment multiplier:the ratio of GDP increment to investment increment,the multiplier of two-sector economy,the multiplier of three-sector economy,and the multiplier of four-sector economy.Two methods,marginal analysis and regression analysis,are commonly used to calculate the investment multiplier.These multipliers are mature and reliable in theory,but the calculation results are quite different,which brings difficulties and confusion to the practical application.Which investment multiplier formula is more accurate and more consistent in reality?An empirical study is carried out by means of marginal analysis and regression analysis based on the forty-year data from 1980 to 2019.The results show that the investment multiplier of the four-sector economy calculated by regression analysis is the most accurate and reliable.

关 键 词：投资乘数 边际分析 回归分析 实证研究 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]