风险或稳定——科技金融发展的异质性分析  

Risk or Stability--Analysis on the Heterogeneity of Science and Technology Finance

作　　者：何剑[1] 郑智勇 李峰[2] 张梦婷[1] He Jian;Zheng Zhiyong;Li Feng;Zhang Mengting(School of Economics and Management,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China;School of Business Administration,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100026,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832000 [2]首都经济贸易大学工商管理学院,北京100026

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2021年第7期158-168,共11页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“宏观审慎政策与货币政策协同向实效应研究”(71863031);石河子大学兵团金融研究中心项目“金融服务新疆实体经济发展的能效研究”(ZZZC201843A)。

摘　　要：科技金融发展是科技创新与经济社会发展的紧密结合,在推动经济稳步发展的同时可能存在风险隐患。本文选用具备时变参数的结构向量自回归模型,对1998—2018年中国科技金融发展影响经济稳定的直接与间接渠道进行实证检验,并将科技金融发展历程中重要改革所造成的即期影响考虑进时变分析中。研究结果表明:首先,在科技金融发展影响经济稳定的直接传导渠道中,异质性时期影响差异明显。差异在于经济繁荣与危机爆发后期,科技金融对经济稳定起到正向作用,而危机时期则起到恶化影响;其次,在系统性金融风险为中介变量的间接传导渠道中,科技金融发展对风险的冲击在滞后期内产生异质性的效应变化,而风险对经济稳定的传导则呈现波动性恶化的特征,表明长效传导渠道存在阻碍;最后,通过对科技金融不同发展时点的观测发现,促进科技金融规模化发展相较于扩宽融资渠道(新三板成立)和单纯依靠财政支持更能起到稳定经济、防范风险的作用。因此,科技金融在拓宽资本市场多重融资模式的同时,要防范企业可能性违约风险,疏通科技至经济的良性助力渠道。The development of science and technology finance is a close combination of science innovation and economic development,which may have risks while promoting steady economic development.This paper chooses a structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters(SV-TVP-SVAR)to empirically test the direct and indirect channels through which the development of science and technology finance affects economic stability in China from 1998 to 2018,and takes into account the immediate effects caused by important reforms in the development history of science and technology finance.The results of the study show that,firstly,in the direct transmission channel of“the development of science and technology finance affects economic stability”,the heterogeneous period effects differ significantly.The difference is between the boom and the later stages of the crisis,where science nd technology finance has a positive effect on economic stability,and the crisis period has a worsening effect.Secondly,in the indirect transmission channel where systemic finance risk is the mediating variable,the impact of science and technology finance on risk generates heterogeneous changes in effects over the lag period,while the transmission of risk to economic stability is characterized by volatile deterioration,suggesting the existence of impediments to long-term transmission channels.Finally,through the observation of different development points of science and technology finance,it is found that promoting the scale development of science and technology finance is more effective in stabilizing the economy and preventing risks than expanding financing channels(the establishment of the New Third Board)and relying solely on financial support.Therefore,science and technology finance in the broadening of the capital market multiple financing models at the same time,to prevent the possibility of corporate default risk,to unblock the good channel from science and technology to the economy.

关 键 词：科技金融 经济稳定 系统性金融风险 异质性 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]