军事科技的国际转移与管制分析——来自军火贸易网络的证据  

Analysis of International Transfer and Regulation of Military Science and Technology--Evidence from Arms Trade Network

作　　者：张煜 Zhang Yu(School of Public Policy&Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2021年第7期179-188,共10页Forum on Science and Technology in China

摘　　要：本文采用2018年16国截面数据,使用软件Ucinet 6,应用社会网络分析法研究军火贸易网络的拓扑结构特征,并通过二次指派程序(QAP)分析法实证考察军火贸易网络的影响因素,为分析国际军事科技转移与技术管制提供经验证据支撑。研究发现:以美国为首的西方阵营主导全球军火贸易网络;在尖端军事科技领域,中俄均遭受严重的西方军事技术出口管制;军火贸易主要受经济规模和政治关系显著正向影响,尤以经济规模影响为最。据此提出与西方国家尤其是美国增进政治互信、改善军贸关系,加强中俄背靠背的军事科技合作,努力发展本国经济,以贸易上的经济互惠关系消除各国政治分歧等建议。Based on the cross-sectional data of 16 countries in 2018,using software Ucinet 6 and social network analysis method,this paper studies the topological structure characteristics of arms trade network,and the influencing factors of arms trade network are empirically investigated by QAP analysis method,which provides empirical evidence for the analysis of international military science and technology transfer and technology regulation.The main findings are as follows.The Western camp led by the United States dominates the global arms trade network;In the field of cutting-edge military science and technology,both China and Russia are subject to severe Western military technology export control;Arms trade is mainly significantly and positively affected by economic scale and political relations,especially by economic scale.Based on this,the paper puts forward some suggestions,such as enhancing political mutual trust and improving military trade relations with western countries,especially the United States;strengthening the back-to-back military scientific and technological cooperation between China and Russia;striving to develop the domestic economy,and eliminating the political differences among countries through the economic reciprocal relations in trade.

关 键 词：科技转移 出口管制 军火贸易 社会网络分析 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易] F22[经济管理—产业经济]