CMIP6全球气候模式对中国极端降水模拟能力的评估及其与CMIP5的比较  

Evaluation of CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation in China and comparison with CMIP5

作　　者：王予 李惠心 王会军[1,2,3] 孙博 陈活泼[3] WANG Yu;LI Huixin;WANG Huijun;SUN Bo;CHEN Huopo(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters,Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519080,China;Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室,珠海519080 [3]竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《气象学报》2021年第3期369-386,共18页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42005015、42088101、41991283、42025502);江苏省自然科学基金项目(SBK2020040311);江苏省高等学校自然科学研究面上项目(20KJB170001);南京信息工程大学优秀毕业论文支持计划。

摘　　要：对CMIP6全球气候模式在中国地区极端降水的模拟能力进行了综合评估。基于CN05.1观测数据集和32个CMIP6全球气候模式的降水数据,采用8个常用极端降水指数对极端降水进行了定量描述。研究结果表明,在极端降水的气候平均态方面,CMIP6多模式集合对1961—2005年中国地区区域平均的8个极端降水指数模拟的平均相对误差为29.94%,相较CMIP5降低了2.95个百分点。极端降水的气候变率方面,CMIP6多模式集合对区域平均的8个极端降水指数模拟的平均相对误差为10.10%,相较CMIP5降低5.45个百分点。此外,利用TS评分进行模式间比较,CMIP6的平均分(0.78)高于CMIP5(0.75),且模拟能力排名前五的模式中CMIP6占4个。对比14个同源模式的TS评分可以发现,CMIP6(0.91)相对于CMIP5(0.68)的模拟能力显著提高。进一步研究发现,CMIP6相对于CMIP5对不同区域极端降水模拟能力的改进有所区别:CMIP6对干旱区平均的气候态和变率方面改进明显,而对于湿润区的改进主要表现在对极端降水空间相关模拟能力的提高。综上,在中国地区,CMIP6相较于CMIP5对极端降水的模拟能力总体上有提升。Based on the 32 global climate models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),27 global climate models that participated in CMIP5 and the observational dataset CN05.1,this study evaluates the performances of these CMIP6 and CMIP5 models on the simulation of extreme precipitation index over China for 1961—2005.Eight extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices(ETCCDI)are used to represent extreme precipitation events.Results indicate that the multi-model ensemble(MME)median of CMIP6 overall has lower relative errors of both climatological mean(with an average of 29.94%,reduced by 2.95%)and relative variability(with an average of 10.10%,reduced by 5.45%)than that of CMIP5.Generally,CMIP6 performs better than CMIP5 in simulating climatological condition of China,especially over the arid region(the error was reduced by 12.15%compared to CMIP5).Further analyses suggest that the MME median of CMIP6 has large spatial correlation coefficients and small root-mean-square errors.Based on the Taylor skill(TS)score,both CMIP6 and CMIP5 models are ranked to evaluate relative model performance.CMIP6 models have higher ranks than CMIP5 models,with an average TS score of 0.78(0.75)for CMIP6(CMIP5),and four out of the five highest-scored models are CMIP6 models.Regarding the homologous models,the TS scores of CMIP6 models(an average of 0.91)are larger than their earlier versions in CMIP5(an average of 0.68),indicating a prominent improvement in CMIP6.Further analyses reveal that the performances of CMIP6 models differ in the simulation of extreme precipitation over different regions of China.Generally,compared to CMIP5,CMIP6 models perform better in simulating extreme precipitation events over China.

关 键 词：CMIP6 CMIP5 极端降水 模拟评估 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]