中国城镇基本养老保险支付能力:区域差异与影响因素——基于泰尔指数多指标测度和省际面板数据的实证研究  

China's Urban Basic Pension Insurance Payment Capacity:Regional Differences and Influencing Factors——Empirical Research based on Theil Index Multi-index Measurement and Inter-provincial Panel Data

作　　者：陈秋星 陈少晖[1] CHEN Qiu-xing;CHEN Shao-hui(School of Economics,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学经济学院,福州350108

出　　处：《湖北经济学院学报》2021年第3期39-48,127,共11页Journal of Hubei University of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AGL007)。

摘　　要：城镇基本养老保险支付能力的区域差异阻碍养老金全国统筹的推进。采用养老金收入GDP比、人均养老金收入、养老金收支比三个指标,运用泰尔指数分析中国城镇基本养老保险支付能力的区域差异,结果显示城镇基本养老保险支付能力的区域差异主要来源于不同省份间的差异。以31个省份17年的数据为样本构建回归模型研究城镇基本养老保险支付能力的影响因素,结果显示经济发展水平是区域内差异的基本原因,人口老龄化和制度赡养比都有负向影响,财政支出对城镇基本养老保险支付能力有负向激励效应。基于此提出了缩小区域经济差异、积极应对人口结构变化、合理运用财政政策、完善养老保险管理体制等建议。Regional differences in pensions hinder the advancement of national pension plans.Using three indicators:pension in⁃come and expenditure ratio,pension income GDP ratio,and per capita pension income,and uses the Theil index to analyze the regional differences in the payment ability of urban pensions in country.The results show that the regional differences in pension payment abili⁃ty mainly come from different province.Using data from 31 provinces for 17 years as a sample,a regression model was constructed to study the influencing factors of regional pension payment capacity.The results showed that the level of economic development is the ba⁃sic cause of regional differences.Population aging and institutional support ratios have negative effects.Expenditure has a negative in⁃centive effect on the ability to pay for regional pensions.Based on this,policy recommendations such as vigorously developing the econ⁃omy,improving the population structure,optimizing fiscal expenditures,and strengthening the pension insurance management system are put forward.

关 键 词：养老金全国统筹 城镇基本养老保险支付能力 区域差异 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]