中国对马来西亚工业制成品出口增长效应分析——基于修正CMS模型的实证研究  

The Effect Analysis of the Growth on China’s Manufactured Products Export to Malaysia--An Empirical Research Based on Modified CMS model

作　　者：王领[1] 张眉 WANG Ling;ZHANG Mei

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学 [2]上海理工大学管理学院

出　　处：《经济论坛》2021年第6期104-111,共8页Economic Forum

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(15YJC790109)。

摘　　要：近年来,中国与马来西亚的工业制成品贸易往来十分密切,我国对马来西亚的工业制成品出口规模整体呈不断增长趋势。基于修正CMS模型,本文考察2004—2018年不同阶段我国对马来西亚的工业制成品出口增长效应,并分析了各阶段我国对马来西亚工业制成品出口增长的原因。结果表明:2004—2008年、2014—2018年两阶段,中国对马来西亚工业制成品出口的增长主要是因为我国工业制成品整体竞争力的提高;2009—2013年,我国对马来西亚工业制成品出口增长主要是因为马来西亚工业制成品进口需求的扩张;2004—2008年、2009—2013年、2014—2018年三个阶段,我国出口工业制成品在马来西亚进口需求增长较快的工业制成品类别上的集中度较低。基于结果,本文得到我国应保持并扩大工业制成品的出口竞争优势以及调整对马来西亚工业制成品的出口结构等启示。In recent years,China and Malaysia have frequent trade in manufactured products,and China’s export of manufactured products to Malaysia has been on the rise.Based on the modified CMS model,this paper makes an review of the growth effect of China’s manufactured products exports to Malaysia in different stages from2004 to 2018,and analyzes causes for the growth of China’s manufactured products exports to Malaysia in each stage.The results show that:In the two stages of 2004-2008 and 2014-2018,the growth of China’s exports of manufactured products to Malaysia is mainly due to the overall competitiveness improvement of China’s manufactured products;in 2009-2013,the growth of China’s exports of manufactured products to Malaysia was mainly due to the expansion of Malaysia’s import demand for manufactured products;in the three stages of 2004-2008,2009-2013,and 2014-2018,the concentration degree of China’s exported manufactured products in the category of manufactured products with rapid growth of import demand in Malaysia is relatively low.Based on the results,this paper concludes that China should maintain and expand the export competitive advantage of manufactured products,adjust the export structure of manufactured products to Malaysia,etc..

关 键 词：工业制成品 恒定市场份额模型 结构效应 竞争力效应 交叉效应 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F426[经济管理—产业经济] F753.38