大豆生产者补贴政策改革促进农户种植结构调整了吗?--基于全国446个县的准自然实验  

Does Policy Reform of Subsidy for Soybean Producers Promote Farmers to Adjust Planting Structure?Based on Quasi-Natural Experiments in 446 Counties Nationwide

作　　者：周杨 邵喜武[1] 吴佩蓉 ZHOU Yang;SHAO Xiwu;WU Peirong(School of Economics and Management,Jilin Agricultural University,Changchun 130118,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林农业大学经济管理学院,吉林长春130118

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2021年第3期305-315,共11页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(18BJY150);农业农村部基金项目(10172130112244010);吉林省科技发展计划项目(20200101062FG)。

摘　　要：以大豆生产者补贴政策改革作为切入点,将政策实施地区和非实施地区视为一次部分省份优化大豆、玉米种植结构的准自然实验,通过构建PSM-DID模型,考察大豆生产者补贴政策改革对农户种植结构调整的影响及其作用机制。结果表明:(1)大豆生产者补贴政策改革对农户种植结构调整具有显著的时间异质性,政策改革初年(2017年)大豆与玉米的面积之比显著提高6.5%,虽然2018年大豆与玉米的相对补贴额度出现大幅度增长,但大豆与玉米的面积之比仅显著提高3.4%;(2)预期相对收益的提升是2017年农户调整种植结构的重要原因,然而,经过对新制度一年的适应后,农户对种植玉米的路径依赖、补贴错位、地租的不合理增长以及大豆、玉米相对价格不理想等问题逐渐凸显,2018年农户重新调整种植决策,补贴的激励作用被迫减弱。基于此,研究结论为统筹大豆、玉米补贴机制可以促进农户种植结构调整提供经验性证据,也为在农业供给侧结构性改革和大豆振兴压力下如何持续改善种植结构提供政策启示。Taking the reform of soybean producer subsidy policy as the entry point,this paper regards the policy implementation areas and non-implementation areas as a quasi-natural experiment for some provinces to optimize the planting structure of soybean and corn.By constructing PSM-DID model,the paper investigated the impact of soybean producer subsidy policy reform on farmers’adjustment of planting structure and its mechanism.The results show that:(1)Soybean producer subsidy policy reform has significant time heterogene⁃ity for farmers’planting structure adjustment,with the early years of the policy reform of soybean and maize significantly increased by 6.5%.Although soybeans and corn subsidies enjoyed relative large increase,the ratio of the area of soybean and maize significantly increased only by 3.4%.(2)The improvement of relative expect⁃ed income was an important reason for farmers to adjust the planting structure in 2017.However,after one year’s adaptation to the new system,problems such as farmers’path dependence on planting corn,failure to pay subsidies to farmers in time,unreasonable growth of land rent,and unsatisfactory relative prices of soybeans and corn have gradually become prominent.Farmers recalibrated their planting decisions in 2018,cutting back on soybean acreage.Accordingly,this paper provided empirical evidence that the subsidy mechanism of inte⁃grated soybean and corn can promote the adjustment of farmers’planting structure,and also provides policy in⁃spiration for how to continuously improve the planting structure under the pressure of agricultural supply-side structural reform and soybean revitalization.

关 键 词：生产者补贴政策 目标价格制度 预期相对收益 种植决策 结构调整 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]