空气质量模式在重庆主城区预报效果检验订正  

Test and Correction of Forecast Effect by Air Quality Numerical Prediction Models in Chongqing Urban City

作　　者：芦华 吴钲 刘伯骏 高阳华 李振亮[3] LU Hua;WU Zheng;LIU Bo-jun;GAO Yang-hua;LI Zhen-liang(Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Chongqing 401147,China;Chongqing Meteorological Observatory,Chongqing 401147,China;Chongqing Institute of Environmental Science,Chongqing 401147,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆401147 [2]重庆市气象台,重庆401147 [3]重庆市环境科学研究院,重庆401147

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第7期176-184,共9页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：重庆市气象局创新团队项目(ZHCXTD-202023,ZHCXTD-202003);重庆市科委技术创新与应用示范项目(cstc2018jszx-zdyfxmX0003).

摘　　要：针对CUACE和CMAQ模式在重庆市主城区对PM_(2.5)、O_(3)和能见度的预报水平,分别进行了统计检验和分级检验分析,结果表明,CUACE模式对PM_(2.5)预报准确度高于CMAQ模式,对O_(3)和能见度的预报水平较低,略差于CMAQ模式,两种模式对于超标污染物和低能见度天气预报的准确率较低,存在一定的虚报和漏报;通过多元线性回归对预报结果进行订正,并对订正结果进行检验,发现订正后的预报值标准化平均偏差降低至0.5以内,平均平方根误差也明显降低,相关系数显著提高,偏差分布范围变窄,对超标污染物和低能见度天气的预报准确度有所提高.In this study,statistical test and hierarchical testare performed of the prediction levels of PM_(2.5),O_(3)concentration and visibility in the main urban area of Chongqing by the CUACE(CMA unified atmospheric prediction system)and the CMAQ(Community Multiscale Air Quality)models.The results show that the CUACE model has higher prediction accuracy for PM_(2.5)than the CMAQ model,and its predictionlevel of O_(3)and visibility is low,slightly lower than that of the CMAQ model.This model has rather low accuracy for over-standard pollutants and poor visibility forecast,and has fairly high false report rate and failed alarm rate.The forecast results are corrected through multiple linear regression,and the corrected results are checked.The normalized average deviation of the corrected prediction values is found to have been reduced to 0.5 or less,the mean square root error is also significantly reduced,the correlation coefficient is significantly increased,the deviation distribution range is narrowed,and the forecast accuracy for over-standard pollutants and poor visibility is improved.

关 键 词：CUACE CMAQ PM_(2.5) O_(3) 能见度 检验 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]