疫情防控常态化下社区交通网格化管理博弈模型分析  

Game Model Analysis of Community Traffic Grid Administration under Normalized Epidemic Prevention and Control

作　　者：魏思源 丛子皓 谢梦婷 王喆[1] WEI Siyuan;CONG Zihao;XIE Mengting;WANG Zhe(Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《物流技术》2021年第6期76-81,共6页Logistics Technology

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务专项资金项目(WUT:2020-ANYJ-B1-08);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(20YJC63015);国家自然科学基金(71501151)。

摘　　要：新冠疫情(COVID-19)爆发,部分社区出现车辆违章、社区秩序混乱等现象,增加了疫情防控工作的实施难度。为了帮助社区提高管理水平,采用演化博弈的理论和方法,通过社区网格管理构建社区和车辆决策模型,分析了双方策略选择的稳定性,并获得各个因素对决策的影响。研究结果表明,社区与车辆之间主要趋向于三种进化稳定策略,分别是(检查,不违章),(检查,违章),(不检查,违章)。当疫情风险增加、社区检查管理成本减少,社区不检查时被行政处罚的力度增大时,社区倾向于选择检查策略;当车辆违章时的罚款增加,社区加强对车辆的安全教育时,车辆倾向于选择不违章策略。The outbreak of the COVID 19 epidemic significantly increased the occurrence of parking of vehicles in violation of relevant regulations which greatly disrupted the normal life and order at the community level,thus adding the difficulty of the implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures.In order to help improve community-level administration,using the theory and methodology of evolutionary game,we constructed the community and vehicle owner decision-making model through community grid management,analyzed the stability of the strategic choices of the two,and revealed the influence of various factors on the decision-making process.The research result showed that there were mainly three evolutionary stable strategies between the community and the vehicle owners,namely and respectively(inspection,no violation),(inspection,violation),and(no inspection,violation).When the risk of the epidemic outbreak increasesd,the cost of community inspection and administration decrease,and the intensity of the administrative penalties increaseds,the community will prefer inspection,when the fines for vehicle violations increased and the community strengthens vehicle safety education,the vehicle owners tend to choose the non-violating strategy.

关 键 词：重大疫情防控 社区交通 网格化管理 演化博弈 稳定性分析 监管机制 

分 类 号：R184[医药卫生—流行病学] D631.5[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]