基于CMIP5和SWAT的山美水库流域未来蓝绿水时空变化特征  

Spatial and temporal variations of blue and green water resources in Shanmei reservoir watershed based on CMIP5 and SWAT

作　　者：王迪 刘梅冰[1,2] 陈兴伟[1,2] 高路[1,2,3] WANG Di;LIU Meibing;CHEN Xingwei;GAO Lu(College of Geographical Sciences,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China;Cultivation Base of State Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Mountain Ecology,Fuzhou 350007,China;Fujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Monitoring and Assessing Terrestrial Disasters,Fuzhou 350007,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州350007 [2]湿润亚热带山地生态国家重点实验室培育基地,福州350007 [3]福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心,福州350007

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2021年第3期446-458,共13页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41601535)。

摘　　要：基于山美水库流域1991-2010的实测气象数据,选取CMIP5中2个气候模式(HadGEM2-ES、NoerESM1-M)和2种典型浓度路径(RCP4.5、RCP8.5),对21世纪近期(2031-2050年)、中期(2051-2070年)、远期(2071-2090年)3个时期的日降水、气温数据进行统计降尺度处理;在此基础上,利用SWAT模型对山美水库流域基准期和未来3个时期的蓝水、绿水资源的时空分布特征进行模拟,评估流域未来60年气候变化对蓝绿水资源的影响。结果表明:山美水库流域未来60年预估年均降水量变化幅度为-0.43%~7.16%,平均气温增加约1.72~5.43℃,相较基准期,未来2个气候模式在2种RCP浓度路径下的蓝水资源量约减少12.81%~35.28%,绿水资源量上升约28.45%~36.12%;不同气候情景下流域蓝水、绿水资源变化率呈现出一定的相似性,上游地区均大于下游地区;降雨是蓝水资源时空分布的关键,而农用地分布则直接影响绿水资源的空间分异特征。Global warming has a profound impact on the hydrological process,which leads to serious problems of regional water shortage.In order to increase the efficient use of available water,it is necessary to predict the impacts of climate change on water resources.Analyzing the spatial and temporal variations of BLUE and GREEN water resources can provide a more reliable basis for regional water resources management and protection.Daily precipitation and temperature data of Shanmei reservoir watershed from two CMIP5 models(HadGEM2-ES and NoerESM1-M)and two representative concentration pathways(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)for the periods of 2031-2050,2051-2070 and 2071-2090 were statistically downscaling by quantile mapping method based on the measured climate data from 1991 to 2010.Then,to assess the impact of climate change on BLUE and GREEN water resources for the next 60 years,SWAT model was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal distribution of BLUE water and GREEN water during the baseline period(1991-2010)and three future periods.(1)Under the scene of RCP4.5,the annual average precipitation in the future will change by-0.43%to 1.93%compared to the baseline period,and the average temperature will increase by 1.72℃to 3.90℃.Under the scene of RCP8.5,the estimated annual average precipitation will vary by-0.43%to 1.93%,and the average temperature will increase by 1.72℃to 3.90℃.With the increasing of RCP concentration path,the magnitude of change in temperature and precipitation become lager as well.(2)The annual average BLUE and GREEN water resource were 1334.90 mm and 717.18 mm,respectively,in Shanmei reservoir watershed from 1991 to 2010.Compared with the baseline period,the amount of BLUE water resources in the RCP4.5 scenario will decrease by 12.81%to 33.41%,and the amount of GREEN water resources will increase by 28.45%to 33.33%from 2031 to 2090.While the amount of BLUE water resources will decrease by 14.17%to 35.28%,the amount of GREEN water resources will increase by 32.21%to 36.12%under the RCP8.5 scenario

关 键 词：气候变化 蓝水 绿水 时空变化特征 山美水库流域 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]