内蒙古地区草地NPP时空变化及预测  

Spatiotemporal variation and prediction of grassland NPP in Inner Mongolia

作　　者：滑永春 马秀枝[1] 萨如拉[1] HUA Yongchun;MA Xiuzhi;SA Rula(College of Forestry,Inner Mongolia Agriculture University,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010019,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学林学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010019

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第4期553-561,共9页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20050103);内蒙古农业大学高层次人才引进项目(170014);“双一流”建设项目(206045).

摘　　要：以1982—2015年内蒙古草地为研究对象,基于GIMMS NDVI3g、ERA5气象和草地类型数据,采用CASA模型生成年草地植被净初级生产力(net primary productivity,NPP).综合运用趋势分析、偏相关、复相关及残差分析法探讨1982—2015年草地NPP的变化趋势,并定量确定气候因子和人类活动对草地动态变化的影响程度.结果表明内蒙古草地NPP呈由西南向东北逐渐递增的分布格局.东北部的草甸草原NPP最大,年均NPP值为383.66g·m^(-2)·a-^(1);其次为中部的典型草原,年均NPP值为245.46g·m^(-2)·a-^(1);西部荒漠草原NPP最低,年均NPP值为123.76g·m^(-2)·a-^(1).内蒙古地区草原1982—2015年极显著和显著增加的面积占草原总面积的11.76%、18.92%;极显著和显著减小的面积占草原总面积的4.26%、8.08%.草原NPP增大的面积大于减小的面积,草地处于恢复状态.其中典型草原和荒漠草原草地NPP增加面积大于减小面积,草甸草原略有下降趋势.内蒙古自治区草原NPP Hurst指数空间差异明显,全区绝大部分区域H<0.5,平均H值为0.40,表明植被整体呈反持续性;2015年后一定时期内研究区内草地NPP的变化趋势可能发生反转.综上所述,1982—2015年内蒙古地区草原总体处于恢复状态,但未来有可能出现草地NPP下降的趋势.Based on GIMMS NDVI3 g,ERA5 meteorological and grassland type data of Inner Mongolia during 1982-2015,annual net primary productivity(NPP)of grassland was generated by CASA model.Variation trend of grassland NPP were analyzed by trend analysis,partial correlation,multiple correlation and residual analysis,and the impacts of climate factors and human activity on the variation trend were further quantitatively determined.The results showed that the distribution pattern of grassland NPP increased gradually from southwest to northeast in Inner Mongolia,maximizing in the meadow steppe in the northeast region,with the average annual NPP value reaching 383.66 g·m^(-2)·a-^(1).NPP in the middle steppe ranked second,the annual NPP value being 245.46 g·m^(-2)·a-^(1),and that of the western desert steppe came in last at 123.76 g·m^(-2)·a-^(1).From 1982 to 2015,the grassland area with extremely significant(P<0.01)and significant(P<0.05)increased NPP accounted for 8.83%and 24.01%of the total study area while the areas with extremely significant(P<0.01)and significant(P<0.05)decreased NPP accounted for 4.26%and 8.08%,respectively.The total areas with increased NPP exceeded those with decreased NPP,indicating that the grassland being in a recovery state.Among it,greater areas of typical steppe and desert steppe saw elevated NPP than reduced NPP while more areas of meadow steppe saw a declining NPP.The spatial variation of the Hurst index of normalized difference vegetation index was significant in the study area,with the Hurst value under 0.5 in most of the areas,averaging at 0.40,demonstrating a reverse sustainable state of the vegetation.To sum up,the grassland in Inner Mongolia maintained in a recovery state from 1982 to 2015,but NPP may decline after 2015.

关 键 词：内蒙古草地 NPP 趋势变化 预测 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]