特朗普能否东山再起--基于对其政治前景影响因素的分析  

Can Trump Make a Comeback-An Analysis of his Political Future

作　　者：付随鑫 FU Suixin

机构地区：[1]中国国际问题研究院美国研究所

出　　处：《当代美国评论》2021年第2期99-118,124,共21页Contemporary American Review

基　　金：2017年度国家社会科学基金青年项目“美国的反全球化与民粹主义运动及其影响研究”(项目编号:17CGJ029)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：特朗普卸任美国总统后,他仍然是影响美国内政外交的重要因素。他拥有强大的政治资本,牢固掌控着数量众多的坚定支持者和一个庞大的政党机器,并正在等待重返美国政坛的新契机。然而,他的政治前景面临选民基本盘难以扩展、对外发声受限、目前美国经济形势向好等阻碍因素,并存在自身健康隐患、面临不利诉讼等潜在风险。在内外条件的共同作用下,特朗普继续参与美国政治的情况至少有再次竞选总统成功、再次竞选总统失败、成为共和党内的“造王者”、充当“搅局者”、被共和党边缘化等可能性。2022年的中期选举和2024年大选将是检验特朗普政治影响力的试金石。Donald Trump remains influential after leaving office in U.S.domestic and foreign policy.He has the ambition to get back to the political center with his profound capital.Having a firm grip of a bunch of strong advocates and the party system,he’s standing by for some opportunity.Meanwhile,he would be restrained to expand his base,air his voice through media and to manipulate economic agenda.Among others,health problem and some litigations would go against his political future.There would be several scenarios with a variety of factors for Trump to get involved again.Campaigning and getting elected or being failed,becoming a“king maker”for the Republicans,acting as a spoiler and being marginalized.Then the 2022 and 2024 elections will be litmus tests of Trump’s political clout.

关 键 词：美国政治 政党政治 特朗普 共和党 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学]