中国居民储蓄、财政空间与政府债务可持续性  

Household Savings,Fiscal Space and Public Debt Sustainability in China

作　　者：李丹 方红生[1] Li Dan;Fang Hongsheng

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济》2021年第6期27-49,共23页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(19CJY053)“财政空间、债务耐受度与政府债务危机风险评估、防范和化解研究”的资助。

摘　　要：本文从居民储蓄视角探讨中国政府债务的可持续性,并结合政府财政反应函数演变趋势和负债.上限决定机制,分析居民储蓄对政府债务可持续性的影响。研究发现:现阶段中国居民储蓄会增大财政调整成本,居民储蓄提高了政府负债均衡点,但需要警惕居民储蓄过高放大经济无效性的风险;居民储蓄通过债务耐受度会影响政府偿付意愿,对政府债务是否可持续产生关键影响;中国.从2019年开始财政空间呈大幅下降趋势,政府应关注财政空间的利用效率。This paper discusses the sustainability of public debt in China from a household savings perspective. Combining the evolution of government’s fiscal response function and determination mechanism of public debt ceiling, the potential impact of household savings on the sustainability of public debt is analysed. Research results show that, at this stage, household savings mainly increase the fiscal adjustment costs and cause the equilibrium point of public debt to increase;however, special care needs to be taken with the risk of excessive saving by households, which amplifies economic inefficiency. It should also be noted that household savings can affect the government’s willingness to pay back through "debt tolerance", which has a critical impact on public debt sustainability. Lastly, fiscal space in China has tended to fall substantially since 2019, so the government should pay more attention to the fiscal space utilization.

关 键 词：政府债务可持续性 居民储蓄 债务耐受度 财政空间 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学] F832.22