基于系统动力学的陆港与城市经济互动研究  

Interaction between Land Port and Urban Economy Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：李晶 钟鹏[1] 吕靖 LI Jing;ZHONG Peng;LYU Jing(College of Traffic&Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China;Logistics Research Institute,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]大连海事大学物流研究院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第7期1-7,30,共8页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71974023);教育部人文社会科学规划基金资助项目(16YJAZH030);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(313209302)。

摘　　要：为分析“一带一路”倡议下陆港与城市经济的相互影响机制,运用系统动力学方法构建两者相互影响的系统模型。以西安陆港与其城市经济在2010—2017年间的相关数据为例进行仿真。结果显示:单纯增加西安陆港基础设施投资对吞吐量带动效益不明显,而港务区货运量对其影响显著;吞吐量与西安市产业增加值呈正相关,尤其带动GDP增长效益明显;西安陆港创造年平均间接GDP为109.06亿元,拉动年平均就业人口8.40万人。In order to analyze the interaction mechanism between the land port and the urban economy under the“One Belt and One Road”initiative,the system dynamics method was used to build the system model of their interaction.Taking the relevant data of Xi an land port and its urban economy from 2010 to 2017 as an example,the simulation was carried out.The results show that simply increasing infrastructure investment of Xi an land port has no obvious effect on the throughput driving benefit,but the freight volume of port area has a significant effect on it;the throughput is positively correlated with industrial added value of Xi an city,especially the benefit of driving GDP growth is obvious;Xi an land port has created an annual average indirect GDP of RMB 10.906 billion,which has driven an average annual employment population of 84000.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 陆港 城市经济 系统动力学 互动机理 

分 类 号：U115[交通运输工程]