我国铁路运营二氧化碳排放影响因素研究  

Study on Influencing Factors of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Railway Operations in China

作　　者：王勇[1] 李红昌[1] 郭雪萌[1] 于克美 WANG Yong;LI Hongchang;GUO Xuemeng;YU Kemei(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道学报》2021年第6期189-195,共7页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(19FJYB042)。

摘　　要：如何有效管控铁路运营产生的二氧化碳排放,实现铁路交通绿色发展面临重大挑战。以中国铁路各铁路局为研究对象,测算分析2006—2017年运营碳排放量的变化趋势,并应用计量经济模型,考虑影响铁路运营二氧化碳总排放量和二氧化碳排放量变动的主要因素。测算结果表明,我国铁路运输业在2006—2017年的运营阶段二氧化碳排放呈现波动式下降趋势,研究期间可进一步划分为2006—2012年平稳下降期、2012—2015年急剧下降期和2015—2017年平稳下降期三阶段。我国铁路运营正朝着低碳绿色方向发展,研究时间窗口期间,铁路运营二氧化碳排放量下降了46.35%。然后,通过固定效应与随机效应模型估计得出,产业结构、平均运输距离以及换算周转量三个变量正向促进铁路二氧化碳的排放量;车辆结构以及高速铁路是抑制或减少铁路二氧化碳排放的主要因素。其中,产业结构变量对铁路运营二氧化碳排放量贡献最大,回归弹性系数为1.671,产业结构的变动也是引起二氧化碳排放量一年内变动最大的因素。Effective control of the carbon dioxide generated by railway operation to realize the green development of railway transportation is facing major challenges.Based on the study of railway bureaus in China,the change trend of carbon dioxide emissions from 2006 to 2017 was calculated and analyzed,and the econometric model was applied to find out the main determinants of total carbon dioxide emissions and changes in carbon dioxide emissions from railway operations.The calculation results show that the carbon dioxide emissions of China’s railway transportation industry in the operation stage from 2006 to 2017 present a fluctuating downward trend,which period can be further divided into three stages:the steady decline period from 2006 to 2012,the sharp decline period from 2012 to 2015 and the steady decline period from 2015 to 2017.China’s railway operation is developing in a low-carbon and green direction.During the research time window,the carbon dioxide emissions of railway operation decreased by 46.35%.Through the fixed effect and random effect models,it is estimated that the industrial structure,average transportation distance and converted turnover positively promote the railway carbon dioxide emissions.Vehicle structure and high-speed railway are the main factors to restrain or reduce railway carbon dioxide emissions.The industrial structure variable has the largest contribution to the carbon dioxide emissions of railway operation,with the regression elasticity coefficient of 1.671.At the same time,the variation of industrial structure is also the factor that causes the largest change in carbon dioxide emissions within a year.

关 键 词：中国铁路 二氧化碳排放量 影响因素 

分 类 号：U2[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]