农户双季晚稻播种面积对稻谷价格变动的反应分析——基于省级面板Nerlove模型  

Analysis of the response of farmers’double cropping late rice planting area to the change of rice price——Based on the Nerlove model of the provincial panel

作　　者：钟国辉[1] 姚金海[2] ZHONG Guo-hui;YAO Jin-hai(Department of Public Management,Party School of CPC Jiangxi Provincial Committee,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330108;Department of Economics,Party School of CPC Jiangxi Provincial Committee,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330108)

机构地区：[1]中共江西省委党校公共管理学教研部,江西南昌330108 [2]中共江西省委党校经济学教研部,江西南昌330108

出　　处：《价格月刊》2021年第7期61-66,共6页

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“共享发展理念下我国养老社会保障中的政府责任研究”(编号:16BKS049);江西省社会科学规划项目“农村土地流转对乡村振兴战略的作用研究(编号:18KS23)”。

摘　　要：通过构建Nerlove模型,并以中国9省份双季晚稻主产区为例进行实证研究,结果表明:上一年晚稻销售价格上升,会激励农户增加当年播种面积,但价格弹性存在较大差异,短期价格弹性为0.25,长期价格弹性为1.18;生产成本每增加1%,双季晚稻播种面积会减少0.17%,土地成本每增加1%,双季晚稻播种面积会减少0.04%。为提高双季晚稻播种面积,建议实施积极稳定的价格政策,并降低生产成本,同时引导土地成本合理变化,保护农户利益。By constructing the Nerlove model and making empirical research of the main production areas of double cropping late rice in 9 provinces in China,the results show that the increase of sales price of late rice in the previous year will encourage farmers to increase the planting area in that year,but the price elasticity is quite different,the short-term price elasticity is 0.25,and the long-term price elasticity is 1.18,that for every 1%increase in production cost,the planting area of double cropping late rice will decrease by 0.17%,and that for every 1%increase in land cost,the planting area of double cropping late rice will decrease by 0.04%.In order to increase the sown area of double cropping late rice,it is suggested to implement a positive and stable price policy,reduce the production cost,and guide the reasonable change of land cost to protect the interests of farmers.

关 键 词：农户 双季晚稻面积 价格 成本 NERLOVE模型 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]