需求可变性和风险偏好对需求依赖促销努力供应链的影响  

Impact of demand variability and risk preference on supply chain with demand dependent on promotion effort

作　　者：禹海波[1] 付建 李健 李泉林 唐中君[1] YU Haibo;FU Jian;LI Jian;LI Quanlin;TANG Zhongjun(Research Base of Beijing Modern Manufacturing Development,School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院北京现代制造业发展研究基地,北京100124

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2021年第4期202-215,共14页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571010、71932002、71672004)。

摘　　要：促销和降低需求可变性是企业提高供应链绩效的重要途径。本文针对需求依赖促销努力水平和可变性水平的供应链决策问题,基于概率论中的均值保持变换和均值CVaR准则,研究需求可变性降低和风险偏好对供应链系统的影响。首先,建立供应链集中系统,证明促销努力和降低需求可变性能够增加集中系统的利润。其次,证明降低需求可变性能够增加促销努力,并且使低利润产品的订货量增加而高利润产品的订货量减少。然后,建立零售商风险偏好下的供应链分散系统,证明收益共享与数量折扣组合契约能够协调需求依赖促销努力和可变性水平的供应链。降低需求可变性能增加零售商的最优期望利润,但制造商的最优期望利润是否增加与零售商的风险偏好有关。最后,用数值例子验证了获得的研究结果。Promotion and reduction of demand variability are important ways to improve supply chain performance,especially for short life cycle products,such as clothing and electronic products.Hence,enterprises often carry out some strategies to increase market demand of products(e.g.advertising,training promotion personnel,giving discount coupons and providing pre-sale and after-sale services to customers),such strategies changes consumers’understanding of the enterprise brand and improves the market competitiveness of enterprises.In reality,FedEx provides transportation cost discounts to attract customers,and Wal Mart offers free trials to stimulate customers’demand for certain types of food.Enterprises are doing their best to increase market demand and reduce demand uncertainty.The factors leading to demand uncertainty,including customer demand factors,industry factors,supply chain factors and so on,make it impossible for managers to accurately predict the actual demand of the market when making inventory decisions and result in inventory shortage or excessive inventory.Although,faced up with the same uncertain demand,managers of different risk attitudes would predict different market acceptance and market returns of products,which makes managers of enterprises have different degree of risk preference characteristics and make different supply chain decisions.In short,it is of great practical significance to consider the retailer’s risk preference to study the supply chain problem of inventory and promotion effort decisions under the condition of reducing demand variability.In this paper,based on the supply chain,where products’demand depends on promotion effort level and variability level,we introduce mean preserving transformation and mean CVaR criterion to explore the supply chain coordination problem,and to analyze the impact of the demand variability reduction and the retailer’s risk preference on the supply chain performance.Firstly,we investigate the centralized supply chain system,where the demand depen

关 键 词：决策科学 需求可变性 库存决策 促销努力 风险偏好 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]