Linkages of flow regime and micro-topography:prediction for non-native mangrove invasion under sea-level rise  

作　　者：Luzhen Chen Hongyu Feng Xiaoxuan Gu Ying Dong Peng Cheng Xudong Guo Qiulian Lin Ting Tang Yihui Zhang Xudong Zhu Shengchang Yang 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Education for Coastal and Wetland Ecosystem,College of the Environment and Ecology,Xiamen University,Xiamen,Fujian,China [2]Zhangjiang Estuary Mangrove Ecosystem Observation and Research Station of Fujian Province,Zhangjiang Estuary Mangrove Ecosystem Observation and Research Station of Fujian Province,Xiamen University,Xiamen,Fujian,China [3]State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science,Xiamen University,Xiamen,Fujian,China

出　　处：《Ecosystem Health and Sustainability》2020年第1期462-475,461,共15页生态系统健康与可持续性（英文）

基　　金：This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFC0506103];National Natural Science Foundation of China[31770579];the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(20720180118);the Key Laboratory of the Coastal and Wetland Ecosystems(WELRI201601);the State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science(MELRI1603).

摘　　要：Flow regime is a key driver of invasive aquatic organisms,and the invasiveness of mangrove species may be simultaneously attributed to plant traits and flowing hydrological conditions at the estuary scale.We focused on hydrological and topographic conditions for a non-native mangrove species,Sonneratia apetala,in Zhangjiang Estuary of Fujian,China.A hydrological model and a micro-topographic model were used to predict its dispersal and early establishment,and field surveys and simulated experiments were integrated to estimate its future dispersal patterns.The mesohaline mudflat with a salinity of 8~10 PSU at the mangrove seaward edge was the most likely colonization area for S.apetala under current conditions.The south-western region of the estuary with native mangroves was the most likely area for its colonization according to the unstructured-grid finite-volume community ocean model(FVCOM)in September,when the largest tidal currents within a year and the maximum fruit maturity period occur.Approximately 42%of the mudflats throughout the whole estuary may be available for seedling establishment under the future sea-level rise RCP 4.5 scenarios compared with 44%for current establishment;however,the RCP 8.5 scenarios would significantly decrease seedling establishment by 2100 due to serious tidal inundation according to the micro-topographical model.

关 键 词：MANGROVES SALINITY ELEVATION sea-level rise climatic change biological invasion 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学]