南天山东段中强地震前ECRS异常时空特征研究  

STUDY ON TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF ECRS ANOMALY BEFORE MODERATE-STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN EASTERN OF SOUTH TIANSHAN

作　　者：郭寅[1] 李金[1] 刘建明[1] GUO Yin;LI Jin;LIU Jian-ming(Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《内陆地震》2021年第2期120-128,共9页Inland Earthquake

基　　金：地震科技星火计划攻关项目(XH21041);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2020D01A84);2021年度震情跟踪定向工作任务(青年)(2021010415)。

摘　　要：基于地震学多参数地震对应概率谱(ECRS)方法,以南天山东段1979~2019年M_(S)≥5.0地震为目标地震进行回顾检验,研究目标地震前南天山东段ECRS的时空异常特征。时间跟踪研究结果表明该区中强地震均发生在ECRS高值异常过程中,空间跟踪结果表明研究区目标地震发生前在震中附近会出现ECRS高值异常,地震发生在异常区内或附近区域。对2020~2021年M_(S)≥5.0地震进行外推预测,发现2020年3月23日拜城M_(S)5.0和2021年3月24日拜城M_(S)5.4地震前ECRS存在时间和空间上的高值异常。Using the method of multi-parameters maximum probability based on Earthquake Corresponding Relevancy Spectrum(ECRS),we study the temporal and spatial anomaly characteristics of ECRS with M_(S)≥5.0 from 1979 to 2019 in eastern of South Tianshan.The results of time tracking show that moderate-strong earthquakes in this area all occurred in the process of ECRS high value anomaly,and space tracking show that ECRS high value anomaly will occur near the epicenter before the target earthquake in the study area.Predicting earthquakes with M_(S)≥5.0 from 2020 to 2021,it is found that there is ECRS high value anomaly before Baicheng M_(S)5.0 earthquake on March 23 th,2020 and Baicheng M_(S)5.4 earthquake on March 24 th,2021.

关 键 词：ECRS 南天山东段 拜城M_(S)5.4地震 高值异常 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]