拜城M_(S)5.4地震前地磁逐日比异常及其预报效能分析  

DAILY RATIO ANOMALY OF VERTICAL COMPONENT OF GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AND ITS PREDICTION EFFICIENCY BEFORE BAICHENG M_(S)5.4 EARTHQUAKE

作　　者：钱才 陈鲁刚[1] 张治广[1] QIAN Cai;CHEN Lu-gang;ZHANG Zhi-guang(Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《内陆地震》2021年第2期129-135,共7页Inland Earthquake

基　　金：震情跟踪定向工作任务(2021010223)。

摘　　要：2021年3月24日拜城M_(S)5.4地震前乌什地震台和喀什地震台地磁垂直分量逐日比出现超阈值异常。针对震前识别异常使用的阈值与预测期,梳理历史震例,并采用R值检验预测效果,讨论不同阈值、预测期对R值检验结果的影响,逐日比异常中高值、低值与地震对应的关系。结果显示,乌什地震台和喀什地震台地磁垂直分量逐日比异常R值较小,预测水平较低,异常中高值和地震对应关系不明显。Before Baicheng M_(S)5.4 earthquake on March 24,2021,daily ratio of vertical component of geomagnetic field in Wushi-Kashi station exceeded the threshold.With the threshold and prediction period for identifying anomalies before earthquakes,this paper sorts out historical earthquake cases,and tests the prediction effect with R value.We also discussed the influence of threshold,prediction periods on results of R value,and the relationship between size of anomaly and the location of earthquake.The results show that R value of daily ratio anomaly at Kashi station and Wushi station is small,which means low level of prediction,and the relationship is not obvious between size of anomaly and the location of earthquake.

关 键 词：拜城M_(S)5.4地震 地磁垂直分量逐日比 R值检验 预报效能 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]