中美日韩贸易隐含碳的流动特征及结构因素分解研究  

Flow Characteristics and Structural Decomposition Analysis of Embodied Carbon in Trade of China,US,Japan and Korea

作　　者：陈志建[1] 张玉洁 刘月梅[1] 张立 钟章奇 CHEN Zhi-jian;ZHANG Yu-jie;LIU Yue-mei;ZHANG Li;ZHONG Zhang-qi(School of Economics and Management,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Economics,Zhejiang University of Finance&Economics,Hangzhou 31018,China)

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学经济管理学院,南昌330013 [2]浙江财经大学经济学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《南昌航空大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第2期47-55,共9页Journal of Nanchang Hangkong University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：2016年国家自然科学基金“长江经济带碳排放权分配与区域协调发展的调控机制及应对策略研究”(41501133);2019年江西省社会科学规划项目“政治资源禀赋锁定下长征沿线区域经济韧性识别、评估与空间管治”(19YJ22);2017年国家自然科学基金“制造企业低碳经营行为动态演化与政策仿真研究”(71662010)。

摘　　要：在当前国家之间出现贸易猜忌倾向之际,研究国际贸易隐含碳对中国碳排放责任界定和气候政策制定具有明显的现实意义。鉴于此,采用最新的世界投入产出数据,构建国际投入产出模型来探讨中美日韩贸易隐含碳的流动特征,进而通过结构分解方法分析中美日韩贸易隐含碳的影响因素。研究表明,中国对美国、日本、韩国出口贸易隐含碳分别约占历年中国出口贸易隐含碳的20%、14%、6%,中国进出口贸易隐含碳呈现上升趋势,但中国仍然是隐含碳净流出国家,中国进口美国、日本和韩国产品产生的二氧化碳分别约占历年进口贸易隐含碳的6%、7%、10%,可见,中国为美国、日本和韩国承担了很大部分的减排责任;进一步通过结构分解模型分析,结果表明规模效应对中国贸易隐含碳增加的促进效应最为明显,投入产出结构效应次之,同时,能源强度效应对贸易隐含碳的增加有明显的抑制作用,碳排放因子效应的抑制效果次之。为此,在制定与美国、日本和韩国之间贸易政策时,有必要考虑碳减排的责任分担及应对策略。In the context of the current trend of trade suspicion among countries,studying on embodied carbon in international trade has great practical significance for the definition of China’s carbon emission responsibility and the formulation of climate policy.Based on the data of the world input-output table,this paper adopt the input-output model to analysis the carbon emission between China,US,Japan and Korea which generated by trade,then uses the structural decomposition to explore the influencing factors of implicit carbon between these four countries.Research shows that China’s export trade implicit carbon to US,Japan and Korea which in the history of China’s export trade implied carbon accounts for about 20%,14%,6%respectively.And the trend of China’s export trade implicit carbon is on the rise.Meanwhile,the import trade implicit carbon of China also shows an upward trend.However,China is still a net exporter of implicit carbon.The carbon dioxide generated by the products which from US,Japan and Korea in China accounts for about 6%,7%,10% in the China’s annual import trade implied carbon. Obviously,China has under-taken a large part of the emission reduction responsibility for US,Japan and Korea,among them,the scale effect has the most prom-inent effect on the increase of China’s trade implied carbon,followed by the input-output structure effect,and the energy intensity effect has a prominent negative effect on the increase of trade carbon, and the suppression effect of the carbon emission factor is second. Finally,when formulating trade policies with the United States,Japan and Korea,it is necessary to consider the responsibil-ity sharing and countermeasures of carbon emission reduction.

关 键 词：多区域投入产出模型 贸易隐含碳 结构分解 减排责任 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]