透视中国双循环发展格局  

The Pattern of Chinese Double Circulation

作　　者：周玲玲 潘晨[1,2] 何建武 李善同[2,3] ZHOU Ling-ling;PAN Chen;HE Jian-wu;LI Shan-tong(School of Public Policy Management,Tsinghua University,100084;China Institute for Development Planning,Tsinghua University,100084;Development Research Center of the State Council,100010)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,100084 [2]清华大学中国发展规划研究院,100084 [3]国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部,100010

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2021年第6期49-61,共13页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“全球价值链视角下的国内区域分工与市场一体化研究”(批准号:71733003);国家社会科学基金青年项目“数字经济时代文化和旅游融合发展的机制创新与实现路径研究”(批准号:20CGL023)的阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：本文主要研究了最终需求视角下2012年与2017年中国双循环发展格局的演变特征。为此,本文从最终需求视角着手,以2012年与2017年中国区域间非竞争型投入产出表为基础,拓展了传统的三驾马车核算方法,构建了国际循环与国内循环有效连通机制,探讨了中国国内国际双循环发展格局的互补与联通特征。主要研究发现有:(1)国家层面:中国大部分省份参与国际循环的程度有所减弱,而国内循环的主体地位有所提升;(2)省际层面:东北地区(黑龙江和吉林)和西部地区(内蒙古、重庆、广西)消费的间接依存度增长较为显著;东部地区(海南、浙江)和西部地区(重庆、广西、陕西)投资的间接依存度增长尤为明显;(3)行业层面:鉴于行业参与价值链分工程度与区位条件的差异,农业、资本密集型产业及服务业主要参与国内循环,而劳动密集型产业与技术密集型产业更多参与国际循环。因此,合理有序调整区域间要素流动,充分运用中国超大国内市场规模,以切实推进中国国内国际双循环的新发展格局。The construction of China’s domestic and international double circulation pattern,as an important way to deal with the situation without great changes in a century,has aroused great concerns.Therefore,from the perspective of final demand,this paper applies Chinese regional non-competitive input-output tables in 2012 and 2017.In addition,this paper expands the traditional accounting method of measuring three components of GDP,constructs an effective connection mechanism between international circulation and domestic circulation,and probes into the characteristics of Chinese domestic and international double circulation development pattern.The results show that:(1)on the national level,the degree of participation in international circulation of most provinces in China has weakened,while the dominant position of domestic circulation has improved;(2)on the provincial level,the indirect dependence of consumption in Northeast China(such as Heilongjiang and Jilin),and Western China(such as Inner Mongolia,Chongqing and Guangxi)has increased significantly;the indirect dependence of consumption in eastern China(such as Hainan and Zhejiang)and Western China has increased significantly;(3)on the industrial level:in view of the differences in the degree of industry participation in the value chain and location conditions,agriculture,capital intensive industries and service industries mainly participate in the domestic cycle,while labor-intensive industries and technology intensive industries more participate in the international cycle.Therefore,reasonable and orderly adjustment of inter-regional factor flow and full use of China’s super large domestic market scale can effectively promote the new development pattern of China’s domestic and international double circulation.

关 键 词：双循环 中国区域间投入产出表 最终需求 直接依存度 间接依存度 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]